Analysis On The Solvency Of Basic Pension Insurance For Employee

With the prolongation of life expectancy of the population and the severe development of aging population,the solvency of the basic endowment insurance for employees in China has come under tremendous pressure.Extending the retirement age can ease this pressure and become a problem that our country urgently needs to solve.This article uses the method of establishing an actuarial model to analyze the solvency of China's basic pension insurance.First,according to China's pension insurance system,I establish the basic pension insurance income model,expenditure model and cumulative balance model,and make basic assumptions on these models;Secondly,on the basis of the comprehensive release of the two-child policy,using Leslie discrete demographic model,Logistic model,ARIMA model to fit relevant parameters based on data such as population,GDP,and average wages;Third,using the established actuarial model and the relevant parameters of the fitting,we predict the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance in the next 34 years in China.It is found that starting from 2019,China's basic old-age insurance began to fail to reach the balance.By 2031,the accumulated balance of China's basic old-age insurance will have a deficit,and the basic old-age insurance system cannot continue to run.Finally,analyzing the solvency of the basic old-age insurance under two different retirement policies,we find that extending the retirement age can only defer the crisis of the accumulated balance loss of the basic old-age insurance,and cannot completely solve the two problems of non-bearable balance and accumulated balance deficit.