The Impact Of National Bilateral Relations On China's OFDI In Countries Along The Belt And Road

Under the current background of economic globalization and political multi-polarization,China firmly grasps this major historical opportunity for development.It takes the “One Belt and One Road” as two wings,based on peripheral countries,and focuses on countries along the route around the world.Promoting the effective allocation of resources and achieving deep market integration are the total target,which will deeply promote the harmonious development of regional politics and economy.With the increase of OFDI in countries along the “Belt and Road” route,domestic and foreign scholars have enthusiastically done their research.But,Domestic scholars have paid less attention to the study of the influence of political relations on OFDI.The bilateral relations between countries will affect the formulation of the government's foreign policy and the investor's risk expectations.That will be directly affecting the bilateralinvestment-behavior.Therefore,this paper takes the bilateral relations between countries as the main variables to study its impact on OFDI in China.In addition,the measurement of the bilateral value of China and countries along the Belt and Road initiative has enriched the content of the bilateral relations database between China and other countries to some extent.First,this paper uses the method of measuring bilateral relations proposed by Prof.Xuetong to calculate the value of bilateral relations between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” from 2005 to 2016.Based on this,the investment gravitation model will be used to calculate the number of countries.As the main explanatory variable,the value of bilateral relationship,FDI flow as an explanatory variable,random effects model was selected for regression analysis,and significant tests were conducted using FGLS and MLE.Second,according to the cross-regional characteristics of countries along the “Belt and Road” route across Asia,Europe,and North Africa,they are subdivided into 11 countries in Southeast Asia,17 countries in Asia(excluding Southeast Asia),10 countries in Europe,and Egypt.Two test methods are used to test for significance.The regression analysis draws the following conclusion: Under the overall regression,bilateral relations between countries have a positive impact on China's OFDI along the “One Belt and One Road” countries,and passed a significant test;in the separate regression of regional divisions,China and Southeast Asian countries There was a significant positive correlation between bilateral relations and OFDI,while 10 countries in Europe(excluding Southeast Asia)did not pass the significance test.Finally,this paper proposes some policy suggestions based on the research conclusions.