| The 14th Five-Year Plan states that it is necessary to improve people’s livelihood and well-being,and reform the social insurance system so that all people can share the fruits of social development.In the construction of a multilevel social security system,the basic endowment insurance system is an indispensable part,and its stable operation is of great significance to ensuring the basic living standards of retired workers.Data from the "China Demographic Yearbook" and "China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook" show that the urban population mortality rate in my country showed an overall downward trend from 1997 to 2019.Development is closely related to the enhancement of people’s health awareness;and the decline in urban mortality will lead to an increase in the expected life expectancy per capita.In 2005,the State Council issued the "Decision on Improving the Basic Pension Insurance System for Enterprise Employees"(Guo Fa [2005] No.38),which stipulated the number of months for calculation and issuance.After retirement,60-year-old employees can receive 139 months of personal account pensions.The basic endowment insurance system predicts that the average life expectancy of 60-year-old retired workers is 11.6 years;and the Bureau of Statistics announced that the average life expectancy of Chinese residents in 2019 reached 77.3 years old.It can be seen that the average life expectancy of retired workers will be much higher than the pension payment months.The longevity risk prolongs the average life expectancy of employees,and increases the amount of pensions in individual accounts year by year.Under the background of longevity that the average life expectancy of urban workers continues to increase,it is of positive practical significance to measure the longevity risk for the fund revenue and expenditure gap caused by the basic endowment insurance of urban workers in my country and the countermeasures for the Chinese government to deal with the longevity risk.The paper focuses on the fund revenue and expenditure gap caused by longevity risk to the basic pension insurance personal account of urban employees and the countermeasures to deal with the fund revenue and expenditure gap.The mortality rate data of urban population by gender and age from 1997 to 2019 are used as the research samples were collected,the Lee-Carter model was used to predict the mortality rate of the urban population by sex and age in the future.Using the theory of balance of payments to measure the premium income and pension expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for urban employees from the two levels of standardized individuals and "newcomers" who participated in the insurance system from 2006 to 2019;and sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters of the fund income and expenditure model of personal accounts.The investment rate of return of funds,the number of months of calculation and issuance,the payment rate have a positive effect on reducing the income and expenditure gap of personal accounts.But the average life expectancy is prolonged,the payment period is prolonged,and the early participation in insurance will lead to the widening of the income and expenditure gap of personal accounts.Comparing the combination of delayed retirement and the average expected life extension,it is concluded that for every 1 year of delayed retirement,the savings in individual accounts can pay about 24 months of pensions,which has certain implications for the relevant departments to formulate delayed retirement.Due to the limited ability of the author and the loss of some mortality data,the shortcomings of this paper are: the age and gender specific mortality data of my country’s urban population is less,and the accuracy of sample analysis is not high enough.Although the predicted value of the mortality rate of the population aged26-90 years old and above in 2019 is more consistent with the actual mortality rate,the prediction accuracy of the population mortality rate will decrease recursively with time.The economic level,social development factors,medical technology,national health awareness will have a uncertain influence on the mortality rate.This paper focuses on the description of longevity risk,the prediction of urban population mortality rate,the impact of longevity risk on personal account fund revenue and expenditure gap and the strategies to deal with longevity risk,Each chapter is closely linked.The first chapter describes the background and significance of the paper,and sorts out the existing literature at home and abroad to find the blank points of the current research,so as to make innovations from the perspective of innovation.The second chapter summarizes the theories used in the paper,longevity risk and personal accounts.The third chapter organizes the static mortality model and dynamic mortality model,and uses the Lee-Carter model to analyze the mortality data of urban population by age and sex in my country from1997 to 2019.After the robustness of the ARIMA model prediction,it predicts the changing trend of the mortality rate of my country’s urban population in the future,and estimates the average expected life expectancy of the basic pension insurance employees in the future.The fourth chapter establishes a model according to the provisions on the calculation and payment of personal accounts to calculate the monthly pensions of individual accounts that employees can receive after retirement.It measures the relative gap between the income and expenditure of individual account funds for standardized employees affected by longevity risks and the absolute gap from a micro perspective,and calculate the total income and expenditure gap of the individual accounts of the insured "new people" in the basic pension insurance system from 2006 to 2019.The sensitivity analysis is carried out on the fund investment return rate,average expected life,number of months counted,contribution period,contribution rate and insured age in the model.The impact of deferred retirement on income and expenses of individual account funds is analyzed.The fifth chapter puts forward measures to deal with the fund gap of basic pension insurance personal account funds.First,employees can purchase a deferred annuity insurance linked to the number of months of calculation and payment with less insurance premiums,which can transfer the wealth of employees is not enough to deal with the risk of prolonging the expected remaining life.Second,predict the average expected life expectancy based on the changing trend of urban population mortality,and adjust the number of months for the calculation and payment of pensions in individual accounts.Third,implement the delayed retirement policy in a gradual and small-step manner,and flexibly design the delayed retirement policy to reduce the resistance. |
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