The Research Of Non-rational Expectations Of Real Bubble Assessment Method

Real estate is a leading and fundamental industry, which promotes and impacts the development of relevant industries, and it being a pillar industry of the national economy. In recent years, China's housing prices continue to rise, causing the controversy on whether there is bubble in the existence of the Chinese real estate market, and if so, how big is the bubble. Therefore studies on the real estate bubble issue are of great importance, especially those which focus on the assessment methods of the real estate bubble.Throughout the domestic existing assessment methods of real estate bubble, there were respective inadequacies. Thus, it is very necessary to build an accurate assessment method of the real estate bubble for some of China's cities, which is a suitable for the China's state of nation.Firstly, this paper analyzed and summarized researches on the domestic and foreign real estate bubble from a macroeconomic perspective and micro-economic perspective, and then explained the non-rational expectations formation of factors of housing prices----real estate developers' adaptive expectations under the "bidding, auction, hanging out "the land system, and the effect of sheep flock of noise trading in detail.Secondly, this paper constructed the model of consumer of the rational expectations--the developer and the model of consumer of the non-rational expectations--on the developers, to determine the base price of housing prices and real estate speculation, and ultimately showed the assessment formula of the real estate bubble, from the perspective of microeconomics, in the framework of partial equilibrium and with rational expectations.Next, by the relevant statistical data of real estate market in Beijing and Tianjin, this essay tested the construction experience models; the results showed that there were bubble in the Beijing and Tianjin the real estate market, and the bubble's extent of Beijing is higher than Tianjin, which verifies the validity of the assessment method.Finally, this paper identified some the current urgent problems and also gave a number of policy recommendations on solve these problems from two aspects of buyers and developers in the China's real estate market.