The Empirical Research Of The Impact Of "Replace Business Tax With Value-added Tax" On The Development Of The Tertiary Industry

�Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� has been widely and profoundly influencing the development of the tertiary industry,and further promoting the adjustment of industrial structure,changing the way of economic development,through solving repeated taxation,deepening the professional division of labor,promoting foreign trade,boosting investment in fixed assets and such as micro level.This paper use the latest PSM(Propensity Score Matching)method and 281 relevant data of prefecture-level city of china in 2013 to study the average treatment effect(ATE)about the influence of �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� on the development of the tertiary industry on the basis of the theoretical hypothesis(including the theoretical hypothesis about the influence of �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� on the development of the tertiary industry and the impact valuation problem,Which focused on the valuation problem about the influence of �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� on the development of the tertiary industry).This method can relieve �self-selection� issue when using the usual OLS or instrumental variable method and reduce the sample selection bias,thus has good simulation effect.Study found: �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� play a positive role in promoting the development of the tertiary industry,but the effect is less than the existing research literature;The influence of �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� on the development of the tertiary industry showed obvious regional difference effect: The development of the eastern region of the third industry has a significant positive effect,while for the eastern region has almost no impact and was not significant.The article also discusses the possible reasons behind the model research conclusion.And finally put forward the corresponding policy suggestion aiming at the different influence of �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� on the development of the tertiary industry in the different region,think: for the eastern region,the priority is to deepen reform of value-added tax and solve the problems in this process;For the Midwest,the first is to improve the social and economic environment for the development of the third industry so that �Replace Business Tax with Value-Added Tax� can play a better positive role in the development of the tertiary industry.