Research On China's Export Trade Potential To Emerging Markets In Latin America

On September 5,2017,Chinese President Xi Jinping presided over the dialogue between emerging market countries and developing countries at the Xiamen International Conference Center.He said that “emerging market countries and developing countries face similar development tasks and need to deepen pragmatic cooperation and play a complementary role.” As the world's emerging economies,China and Latin America have significant trade complementarity and huge potential for cooperation.Therefore,the expansion of China's export trade to Latin America's emerging markets will be crucial for advancing China's industrial restructuring,defusing superior surplus capacity,boosting economic growth of China and even world,and realizing the improvement of bilateral welfare levels.Based on the bilateral trade data between China and Latin America emerging markets,this paper uses the theoretical research and empirical analysis,quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,and research method of systematic induction,to launch a study on China's export trade potential to emerging markets in Latin America.On the basis of combing the relevant theories of trade cooperation between China and Latin America,this article first qualitatively analyzes the situation of China's export trade to emerging markets in Latin America,and concludes that China's exports continue to expand to emerging markets in Latin America;exports of industrial manufactured goods are showing a strong trend;the main export targets are Mexico and Brazil;and the overall dependence on exports has increased.Secondly,this paper analysis the competitiveness and complementarity of China's exports to emerging markets in Latin America through the transfer share analysis and the revealed comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index.The research shows that compared with other major importing countries in Latin America,China's competitive advantage is dominated by industrial manufactured goods,of which the export structure is always at advantage,and this advantage has been strengthened,but the export growth advantage has decreased;Meanwhile,the comparative advantage and trade complementarity of exports of industrial manufactured goods are significantly higher than that of primaryproducts.Thirdly,in this paper,according to the trade potential index,China's export potential to emerging markets in Latin America as a whole has increased from the perspective of total volume and product classification,and has declined slightly in the past two years;the export potential of manufactured goods such as machinery and transportation equipment,finished chemicals and related products,finished products classified by raw materials and other industrial products is greater;the potential target countries are Mexico,Brazil,Argentina,Chile,Colombia,Peru.Finally,this paper proposes relevant suggestions on how to expand and excavate China's potential for export trade to Latin America's emerging markets,that is,to improve China-Latin America's economic and trade cooperation to expand its export potential,use the government's effectiveness to liberalize trade through “One Belt and One Road”,and use complementary advantages to innovative cooperation models,strengthen national innovation capacity to expand new space for China-Latin America cooperation.