An Empirical Research On The Accumulated Increase Of Stocks Price And The Trading Opportunity Choice At Different Stages After Going Public

Since the IPO restarted in June 2014,a feeding frenzy of "application for the new shares" wave after wave in the stock market,the new shares reach a few daily limit has become the market norm after Listed on the first day.In consideration of China's investment structure is extremely asymmetric,the majority of retail investors have been the main force of the market,irrational emotions filled in the entire stock market,interfered with the healthy and stable operation of the market seriously.Based on this,this paper selected 305 A-share sample data listed on June 1,2014 and February 10,2016,to establish multiple linear regression model and binary logistic regression model respectively.Taking an Empirical Research on the Accumulated Increase of Stocks Price and the Trading Opportunity Choice at Different Stages after Going public,to provide theoretical reference for retail investors and weaken the securities market "noise."The first part is the multiple linear regression model,which mainly studies the influencing factors of the cumulative gains of new shares in different stages.This article will be divided into five stages after the IPO: the initial stage,short-term stage,the medium stage,The long term and the cumulative increase in the highest stage.The empirical results show that the influencing factors of the cumulative gains in each stage are both different and common.The independent variables that affect the initial and short-term stages are concentrated on the short-term speculative indicators.The independent variables that affect the medium-long term owe to the intrinsic value of the indicators.Last,the same period the cumulative increase of the index,the issue price per share,circulation,the number of consecutive daily limit,the five indicators for the impact of different stages of the trend is very significant.The second part is the binary Logistic regression model,this part is about the new shares whether can innovation high after successive harden board open board.This article after the new shares opening board is divided into three stages,short-term(3 months after the open board),medium(3-6 months after the open board),long-term(6-12 months after the open board).The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy is 67.5%,69.2% and 77.2% respectively according to the three stages of Logistic regression model,and it shows the prediction accuracy of the model is about 70%.To a certain degree,it can help the investors to make more rational investment decisions.In addition,the model also shows the lot winning rate has an significant impact on each stage,and it shows the negative correlation of all the dependent variable,namely,the lot winning rate is smaller,the greater the chance of a new share high.