Research On Fluctuation Of Hog Price In Heilongjiang Province

Agriculture is the basic industry of national economy. Animal husbandry is an important part of agriculture. As the pioneer of developing modern agriculture in Heilongjiang province, How to transfer from the major grain-producing provinces to modern agricultural province, From a big agricultural province to a strong province food industry, This is the important issues of the current "three rural" work in Heilongjiang province. The pig industry is the "backbone" of animal husbandry in Heilongjiang province, Any changes will affect the long-term development of the whole animal husbandry. Hog prices are important factors affect the development of pig industry, Pig price fluctuation relationship with the improvement of people’s life quality and living standards, affecting the producer production forecast and the incentive to produce. Therefore research on Heilongjiang pig market price fluctuations, response to the sharp fluctuations in market prices of live pigs in a reasonable way, it’s very important practical significance for pig industry in Heilongjiang province and even the healthy development of pig industry in China.Based on the background of hog price and production fluctuation in Heilongjiang province in recent years, settling The research results at national and abroad, definite The connotation of the price fluctuation and the form of fluctuation cycle; Based on Equilibrium price theory、Labor value theory、Elastic theory and Cobweb theory, using date of hog price in Heilongjiang province, analysis on Pig price rule and pig price fluctuation characteristics of cyclical fluctuations, find out Pig price fluctuation cycle and fluctuation of Heilongjiang province; Use EVIEWS statistical software and adopt the method of stepwise regression analysis to construct multiple regression analysis model, select variable indexes from the aspect of supply, demand and supply and the demand of cross-section to analysis on pig market fluctuations in Heilongjiang province. The results show that the fit of the model is higher, test effect is remarkable, model building is reasonable, feed prices (0.54) has a positive effect on pig market price and the biggest impact;The expected price (0.31) has a positive effect on pig market prices and the impact is bigger; Piglet prices (0.23) has a positive effect on pig market prices and the impact is minimized. Per capita income, price of beef, mutton, factors such as policy and disease, there is no significant effect on pig market prices. At the end, propose that control the appropriated scale breeding, strengthen the government regulation in market, push out the pig future, stabilize the government support policy, prevent pig disease and strengthen the construction of pig circulation mode innovation to tackle fluctuation of hog price in Heilongjiang province...