A Study On The Relation Between Industrial Overcapacity And Export Intensity In China

The economy of China has been deeply affected since the global economic crisis in 2008.Some industries have shown a long-term trend of “oversupply”.The problem of overcapacity in China has gradually emerged and attracted more and more attention.Undoubtedly,the problem of overcapacity is like a "malignant cancer" which has become the most urgent need for medical treatment in China's economic development and the focus of China's macro-control in recent years.In 2013,the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Resolving the Contradictions of Severe Overcapacity Guo Fa [2013] No.41" which clearly pointed out that "Resolving Serious Overcapacity Contradictions is the focus of promoting industrial restructuring at present and in the future." "If we do not take timely measures to resolve these problems,it will inevitably intensify the vicious competition in the market,resulting in the expansion of industry losses,unemployment of enterprise employees,the increase of non-performing assets of banks,the intensification of energy resources bottlenecks and the deterioration of the ecological environment,which directly endanger the healthy development of industry,and even affect the improvement of people's livelihood and social stability." At the same time,it is emphasized that capacity removal should not only focus on the domestic market but also focus on the international market,actively expand the development space,consolidate and expand the international market,and encourage enterprises to further resolve domestic excess capacity through “going out”.As an indispensable economic engine of our country,industry has important practical significance in the study of the problem of excess capacity and the relationship between productivity utilization and export intensity.By reading and sorting out relevant literature,this paper chooses the productivity utilization ratio as the reverse proxy index of overcapacity and calculates the productivity utilization ratio of 31 industrial subdivisions in China from 2004 to 2014 by using data envelopment analysis(DEA).It is found that there is widespread overcapacity in China's industry as a whole through the calculation and analysis.At the same time,this paper discusses and analyses the impact of export intensity on industrial productivity utilization ratio theoretically and empirically on the basis of calculating the utilization ratio of industrial capacity,and concludes that export intensity has a significant positive effect on industrial capacity utilization rate.The export intensity of industries with different scale of new investment and different proportion of state-owned assets has different positive effects on capacity utilization ratio.Finally,according to the conclusions drawn from the theoretical and empirical analysis,the corresponding policy recommendations are given.The structure of this paper is as follows: The first part expounds the research background and significance of the article and discusses the research content and the research methods used,and then analyzes the possible innovations and deficiencies that this paper may bring;the second part is a review of literature research,from the related research of overcapacity and the shadow of export intensity on overcapacity.Starting with the relevant research,this paper combs and analyses the output of capacity,the meaning of excess capacity,the formation mechanism of excess capacity,the measurement method of excess capacity and the impact of export on excess capacity from the perspective of foreign research status and domestic research status respectively.The third part first analyzes the current situation of industrial overcapacity in China,and then gives the theoretical model and the selected indicators using the data envelopment analysis method to measure the industrial capacity utilization rate.The corresponding processing was carried out and the capacity utilization rate of 31 industrial sub-sectors was measured by the MaxDEA Ultra software using the SBM model.The indicator data selected in this paper mainly comes from the basic data in China Statistical Yearbook,China Industrial Economics Statistical Yearbook and China Science and Technology Activity Yearbook.The fourth part elaborates the theoretical basis of the impact of export intensity on industrial productivity utilization ratio and its corresponding empirical model.After analysis and comparison,the fixed effect model is used to estimate the impact of export intensity on industrial productivity utilization and the heterogeneity results are analyzed.Through the robustness test,we draw a robust conclusion that export intensity has a significant positive impact on industry productivity utilization.The fifth part summarizes the research conclusions and gives the corresponding policy recommendations.The possible innovations of this paper are as follows: 1.This paper explores and verifies the impact of industrial export intensity on the productivity utilization ratio from the two paths of "sales effect" and "competition effect",which is helpful to reveal the causes of overcapacity from the perspective of export.2.Most scholars focus on the problem of excess industrial capacity in China and explore the ways and schemes to resolve excess industrial capacity,less from the perspective of export.This paper focuses on the relationship between productivity utilization rate and industry export intensity,and provides practical verification for relevant theoretical research through empirical research.3.This measure uses the capacity utilization rate in engineering sense compared to economics sense.The capacity utilization rate in the sense is more suitable for the current development stage of China and the economic characteristics of the transition from planned economy to market economy.