Research On The Trend Of The Internet Third Party Payment Based On Special Measurement Model

With the rapid development of e-commerce in China,the third party payment system greatly improved the efficiency of the entire trading market,and it's trading volume increased year by year.The traditional payment way of third party payment--Internet online payment has the position which cannot be substituted.Quantify it's trade growth mode under the influence of comprehensive factors is of great benefits.Which is not only beneficial to dig out the potential trade volume of online payment,and but also to predict the future transactions of the third party payment.Besides,there exist special relationship between commercial banks and the third party payment.Quantify the form of competitive-cooperative relationship between them is conducive to analyze the further development of the third party payment and to realize the win-win situation.Based on time series model,the fractional grey model and Lotka-Volterra model,this paper studied the development of the third party payment from two aspects respectively.Which were self-development under the influence of comprehensive factors and the development under the competitive-cooperative relationship with bank.First of all,to analyze the transaction trend of the third party Internet online payment,a coupled model which combined time series model and the fractional grey model was established.It took account the time-varying and grey characteristics of the transaction data.This paper introduced different operators to extend the applicability of the model.And the solution of the coupled models in different operators was simplified by decomposing the fractional grey model into the form of matrix.And the optimal coupled model suit for the development of the transaction mode was selected by analyzing the influence of the initial value on model.Secondly,to analyze the development of the third party payment under the competitive-cooperative relationship with bank,a Lotka-Volterra model including the self-influence coefficients was established.And it was discretized by the thought of grey directly modeling with background value coefficient.Then,we obtained the model by the least squares method,which reflected the competitive-corporative relationship of bank and the third party payment.Finally,an empirical analysis was conducted.The results show that: the volume of Internet online payment transactions of the third quarter of 2016 will be 52297.39 billion,it's relative error is 6.6% compared with the actual data,so the fourth will be57593.34 billion by the empirical analysis of coupled model;the inhibitory effect of bank on the third party payment Internet online payment is greater than the reaction of the third party payment,and a win-win station will achieved if and only if they strengthen the cooperation;the self-influence of the bank changed to promotion in2011,both of the third party payment and bank are promotion from 2008.