| With the development of economy and society and the need of goods exchange,the role of logistics industry has become increasingly prominent.In addition,the organizational model of logistics industry will be changed in all aspects of operation and function.The ratio of logistics cost to GDP in China has decreased in recent years,but it is still far higher than that in developed countries,logistics efficiency has not kept pace with the growth of logistics scale.This paper chooses total factor productivity based on input-output analysis to truly reflect the development quality of logistics industry.There is an interactive relationship between provincial and regional total factor productivity of logistics industry,and it will also be affected by other factors in adjacent provinces.Therefore,based on Solow model,this paper studies the spatial spillover effect of total factor productivity and its influencing factors in China's logistics industry through spatial econometric analysis.Based on the 2007-2016 provincial panel data,this paper calculates the total factor productivity of logistics industry by DEA-Malmquist index method and decomposes it into pure technical efficiency?technical efficiency and technological progress,and studies whether the regional disparity is convergent or divergent through convergence analysis.The results of the calculation show that:The TFP index of 2007-2016 year increases by 1.4% annually,mainly due to the increase of technical efficiency index.The direction of technical efficiency and technological progress is opposite.Scale efficiency is the main reason for the change of technical efficiency.The development gap of logistics industry in all provinces of China has expanded and the total factor productivity has spread to their steady state level.On the basis of the above research,this paper makes an influence mechanism analysis and empirical analysis on the factors that affect the total factor productivity from three aspects:factors of production?market and government,and eight specific indicators: Infrastructure Construction?Human Capital Level?Industrialization?Urbanization?Marketization?Economic Development Level?Opening-up Level and Government Intervention Level.This paper constructs three different spatial weight matrices: adjacency matrix,inverse distance weight matrix and economic-distance nested matrix,uses spatial panel model and dynamic space panel model based on the theory of economic geography to further study the spatial spillover effects and long-and-short term effects of various factors on the logistics industry TFP through spatial correlation test.The results of the study show that:The logistics industry TFP has a negative correlation in space and has an inertia effect in time.The influence of various factors on logistics TFP is mainly in the short term.Industrialization has a significant role in promoting the local logistics industry TFP;The level of economic development and the level of opening to the outside world have a significant promotion effect on the logistics industry TFP in the local and adjacent areas;The urbanization has a significant inhibitory effect on the logistics industry TFP in the local and adjacent areas;Government intervention has a positive effect on the TFP of the local logistics industry,but has a negative effect on other areas,and the total effect is not significant.The impact of human capital,marketization and transportation infrastructure on the TFP of logistics industry is not significant.Finally,aiming at the problems existing in the development of logistics industry,it puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the improvement of logistics efficiency. |
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