| China,the second largest economy in the world,has experienced rapid economic growth in recent years.While air pollution has become increasingly serious.Since 2013,the frequent occurrence of large-scale and persistent haze weather in China has not only seriously affected people's daily life and health,but also affected China's international image.Therefore,the state has proposed a series of policies such as "Atmosphere Ten"and "Air Pollution Control Fighting" to control smog pollution,and governments at all levels have responded to the call of the state through measures such as reducing coal,reducing dust and restricting vehicles.Among them,the widely practiced notor vehicle restriction policy has shown great differences in the implementation of various cities.So,what is the effect of the traffic restriction policy when it is implemented in each city?What is the reason for the difference in the effectiveness of the traffic restriction policy?The resolution of the above problems will provide an effective reference for the government to formulate a traffic restriction policy.Aiming at the above problems,in order to clarify the diurnal change of urban haze pollution caused by vehicle traffic restrictions,this paper firstly selects PM2.5 as the output variable.Select the automobile traffic restriction policy(Res),wind grade(Wind),maximum temperature(Htem),rainfall(Rain),air humidity(Hum),coal gas policy(CG)and the cumulative ratio of industrial value added above the scale(Ind)as the input variable.Using MIV-BP neural network,this paper explores the effectiveness of traffic restrictions policy for haze pollution control in 11 provincial capitals from November 2014 to August 2018(Xi'an from November 2016 to August 2018).Secondly,based on the classification of the validity of traffic restriction policy in the early period,in order to explore the reasons that affect the effect of traffic restriction policy.This paper uses Logit model to record the validity of urban traffic restrictions as an explanatory variable,and selects the annual data of 11 cities from 2000 to 2015:gross national product(GDP),the number of public transport vehicles per 10 000 people in gross national product(GDP),and the number of public transport vehicles per 10000 people.Industrial Coal consumption(Coal),Science and Technology Expenditure as a proportion of Gross domestic Product(Sci),Energy consumption intensity(Energy),second Industry added value(Sec),Urban population urbanization rate(Urb),population density(Pop),Ten variables,such as urban green space(Green),foreign investment(FDI)are studied as explanatory variables.The results are as follows.(1)The weather factors in 11 cities have a strong influence on the haze pollution,especially in the city air humidity and the highest temperature.This indicates that the meteorological conditions of the city have a significant effect on the formation of the haze.The accumulation ratio of industrial added value above the scale is also larger than that for each city,thus the industrial development of the city is still one of the "to be an accomplice" of air pollution.(2)The influence degree of motor vehicle traffic restriction policy on haze pollution is different in 11 cities.Among them,the negative effect of PM2.5 concentration means that the implementation of vehicle traffic restrictions in this city is a more effective policy for the control of haze pollution:Beijing,Nanchang,Guiyang and Hangzhou;The positive effect of PM2.5 concentration means that the implementation of vehicle traffic restrictions in this city is more ineffective for the control of haze pollution.They are Xi'an,Changchun,Chengdu,Harbin,Lanzhou,Tianjin,and Shijiazhuang.(3)The effect of traffic restrictions varies from city to city.Therefore,according to the 10 influencing factors selected,it is found that the gross national product(GDP)per 10000 people owns public transport,the number of(Bus),technology expenditure as a proportion of gross domestic product(Sci)to the gross domestic product(GDP).Five variables,such as the urban green space(Green),the amount of foreign investment(FDI)and other variables,have a positive effect on the effectiveness of the traffic restriction policy of motor vehicles.Among them,the(Green)index of urban green space area is not significantly positive.Industrial coal consumption(Coal),energy consumption intensity(Energy),secondary industry added value(Sec),urbanization rate of urban population(Urb),Five variables,such as population density(Pop),have a negative effect on the effectiveness of vehicle traffic restriction policy.(4)The continuous development of the urban economy provides the basic conditions for the effective implementation of the traffic restriction policy,indicating that economic development and environmental governance have gradually reached the stage of joint promotion.However,the negative economic externalities caused by environmental pollution should not be ignored.At the same time,the existence of such"urban diseases" as industrial consumption,capacity structure and population surge are still causing the deterioration of urban air pollution.The important reason why the urban traffic restriction policy cannot be implemented effectively.The urban air quality can be improved by developing public transport and promoting the level of science and technology,the effect of traffic restriction policy is more remarkable.Based on this,this paper gives some policy suggestions as follows:(1)It is more effective for cities with developed economy,high level of science and technology and reasonable production capacity structure to carry out traffic restrictions policy when the government should take a rational view of the traffic restrictions policy of motor vehicles.According to their own situation,cities with ineffective traffic restrictions make relevant policies reasonably,change the urban form,and realize the win-win goal of haze governance and urban development.(2)The pollutants released from urban coal combustion are one of the important sources of air pollution,the proportion of pollutants emitted from tail gas is relatively small,and the effect of traffic restriction policy is not significant.Therefore,if we want to carry out the traffic restriction policy effectively,we should speed up the development and utilization of clean and low-carbon energy,and promote our own level of science and technology through independent research and development or the introduction of advanced technology from foreign investors.(3)At present,the city government with ineffective traffic restrictions on motor vehicles needs to formulate a scientific top-level design from the source,speed up the transformation of industrial structure and optimize the energy structure.(4)In the future development planning of the city,it should be more flexible to develop the city than the one-size-fits-all traffic restriction policy.Increasing the number of public transport means,allowing people to consciously change the way of travel,step by step on the road to low-carbon travel,ultimately improve the air quality of the city. |
PDF Full Text Request