| With the development of economy, the vehicle population is increasing. The motor vehicle pollution emissions have a rising trend year by year in our country. The number of motor vehicle pollution have reached 246 million in our country. From 2010 to 2014 the number of the vehicle population is 190 million, 207.5 million, 233.8 million, 232 million and 246 million,the average annual growth amount to 6.6%. The amount of motor vehicle pollution from motor vehicles is 44.511 million tons, 46.079 million tons, 46.121 million tons, 45.709 million tons and 45.473 million tons,the average annual increasing is 0.5%. The 1990 s was a watershed year of air pollution in our country. The type of air pollution belongs to coal-burning it main source comes from industrial pollution emissions before earlier 1990 s. The motor vehicle pollution due to the rapid growth of motor vehicle have replaced the coal-burning pollution and has become the primary source of air pollution. Although the number of motor vehicle is not huge, the contribution of air pollution from motor vehicle is similar to the developed countries. because of the large urban population density, high buildings in cities and road congestion in our country lead to the spreading of motor vehicle pollution emissions difficultly, it exacerbate the hazards of motor vehicle pollution to human health further. It has a certain value for the research of motor vehicle pollution.The thesis have measured the emission factors by experimental method, estimated the emission factors and calculated vehicle exhaust emissions of Shenyang city in 2013. Based on the study of motor vehicle population in Shenyang city from 2000 to 2013. Applying grey system theory, predicting the vehicle population in Shenyang from 2016 to 2020. Build linear programming equation, between vehicle population and the amount of motor vehicle pollution emissions, predicting the amount of motor vehicle emission in Shenyang city from 2016 to 2020. Main relative research results are as follows:(1).Applying the vehicle-mounted emission system to detect the factors of CO, NOx and HC in motor vehicle emission and combined with the average mileage in one year, calculating the amount of motor vehicle pollution emissions. The amount of motor vehicle pollution emissions in Shenyang city is 501489.3 ton, including CO 355268.6 ton, NOx 102800.6 ton and HC 43419.94 ton in 2013. The amount of motor vehicle pollution emissions of oversize vehicle in passenger vehicle is 14039.61 ton, heavy truck’s in goods vehicle is 24847.2 ton, motorcycle is 3184.747 ton, tractor is 2260.44 ton, and private car is 37979.57 ton.(2).Applying grey system theory, calculating the amount of social motor vehicle population in Shenyang city from 2016 to 2020.As follows 2156941.51,2462874.03, 2812198.88, 3211070.65, 3666516.90. relational coefficient test checking to test the correctness of the GM(1,1) model. The relational coefficient of social vehicles, civilian vehicles, passenger vehicles, trucks, motorcycles and private vehicles are : 0.913, 0.9933, 0.9783, 0.8538, 0.7035 and 0.9424,above 0.6. The results show that the accuracy of GM(1,1)model meet the requirements of forecasting precision of grey system.(3).According to the linear programming equation between vehicle population and the amount of motor vehicle pollution emissions, build linear programming equation : Y = 3544726.032-0.34353 X. And predicting the amount of motor vehicle emission in Shenyang from 2016 to 2020. The result as follow:2803751.92 ton, 2698655 ton, 2578651 ton, 2441626 ton and 2285167 ton.(4) According to the environment capacity formula of urban road traffic at a macro level, it shows that the maximum pollutant capacity of CO is about 193523 ton and maximum pollutant capacity of NO2 is about 110852.2ton in Shenyang city.Based on the prediction of the motor vehicle population and motor vehicle pollution emissions, it has a certain role and significance to draft the emission reduction program and to control the motor vehicle population for Shenyang city. |
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