The Influence Of Cognitive Reflection Style On The Judgment Bias Of Cumulative Variables

Accumulation judgment bias is a phenomenon in which there are bias in understanding the relationship between stock and flow over time in dynamic systems.People usually use correlation heuristic to establish a simple and relevant pattern match between the flow(net flow)and the stock,which leads to accumulation judgment bias,so it's also called stock-flow failure.Decision making using heuristic thinking is consistent with the processing feature of system I in the dual processing theory.Therefore,our study which cutting in the individual explores the impact of individual cognitive reflection style on accumulation judgment bias based on the perspective of dual processing theory from.Specifically,it mainly discusses two issues:(1)How are different cognitive reflection styles individuals performing on accumulation judgment?(2)What are neural mechanisms under the relations and which brain regions are closely related to such performance?This study examines the above two issues through two experiments.Study 1 consists of two behavior experiments,Study 1a and Study 1b.The experiments are designed using two paradigms of accumulation judgment four-question task and drawing task to investigate the effect of cognitive reflection style on accumulation judgment bias.The study recruited 390 subjects,and found that,on both tasks,the proportion of subjects with intuition-style errors in accumulation judgment bias was significantly higher than that of subjects with analytical style.The cognitive reflection style had a significant effect on the accumulation judgment bias.Study 2 used fNIRS technology to investigate the characteristics of brain activity in the process of different cognitive reflection style subjects in solving the accumulation judgment problem.The fNIRS analysis of 64 typical subjects found that the intuitive style subjects had significantly lower activation in the right inferior frontal cortex(IFC),frontalpole cortex(FPC),and middle temporal gyrus(MTG)than the analytical style group.In summary,this study finds that cognitive reflection style has a significant impact on accumulation judgment bias.Intuitive style individuals are more likely to have accumulation judgment bias than analytical style individuals.Analytical style individuals have less accumulation judgment bias due to the activation of the right IFC,which inhibits the use of heuristic system to ensure the quality of decision-making.