Storage-Flow Error Generation Mechanism

Stock-flow(SF)failure is a typical bias that affects SF task performance,indicating that people have difficulty in understanding accumulation.Prior research suggested that the occurrence of SF failure originated from the mental model of "correlation heuristic",but there was not sufficient research evidence yet on the cognitive processing of SF failure,and there was also a lack of clarification and confirmation on the nature of the mental model of correlation heuristic based on empirical research.Therefore,in present study,eye tracking and functional near infrared spectroscopy(fNIRS)were used to verify the generation mechanism of SF failure.Specifically,we(1)tested the thinking characteristics of the correlation heuristic by the eye movement patterns of information processing in SF failure condition,and(2)explored the mental model of SF failure by the brain activity characteristics in SF failure condition.In study 1,eye tracking technique and the SF four-question task was used to investigate the cognitive processing characteristics generated by SF failure,and to test the thinking characteristics of the correlation heuristic.The study recruited 50 participants and collected 2961 valid trials.The results suggested that the average saccade amplitude,average fixation duration and long fixation count of the SF failure group were significantly lower than that of the correct group;the dwell time ratio,fixation ratio,number of regression and saccades in the key region of interests(ROI)were significantly higher than those in the correct group.The dwell time ratio and fixation ratio in the key region of interests(ROI)had a positive predictive effect on SF failure.Study 2 used fNIRS to test the nature of mental processing of correlation heuristic by comparing the differences of blood oxygen concentration changes in relevant brain areas during the SF failure group and the correct group,to clarify the generation mechanism of SF failure,and to provide a research basis for exploring methods and approaches to reduce SF failure.The fNIRS analysis of 37 typical participants found that the activation level of the right inferior frontal cortex,frontopolar cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in the SF failure group was significantly lower than that in the correct group when reasoning about SF problems.It showed that the SF failure group adopted correlation heuristic mode of reasoning when confronted the SF problems,intuitively establishing a simple matching relationship between the stock and the flow value.The generation of SF failure was related to the failure to adequately suppress the intuitive processing in heuristic system and executive-control of insufficient information processing and integration.The present study provided evidence of eye tracking and brain imaging to reveal the psychological mechanism of SF failure,and provided approaches for the intervention and correction of SF failure.