| In recent years,the municipal and the district governments have taken population regulation as their key task and put forward higher requirements on demographic work.However,the traditional demographic system exists some limitations.For example,the 10-year census and the 1%sample survey only reflect the population at the time point.Meanwhile,the annual population assessment and sample survey on population changes still need to be improved further in terms of methodology and survey precision.Considering the characteristics of Pudong's large population base and strong liquidity of the population,as well as the current requirements for population change and migration trend,using the trace data of mobile phone users on the basis of the current demographic methods to explore a viable monitoring system,which can realize the monthly monitoring of the overnight residents in each township of the New District as well as the accurate judgment of the population distribution and the flow tendency,is of great significance.This article start with China Unicom mobile phone signaling data,discuss the definition of resident population and measurement methods.First of all,in order to understand the positioning principle of China Unicom's mobile phone signaling data comprehensively and deeply,this paper introduces the cell-based positioning method adopted by China Unicom and introduces the data analysis methods briefly.On this basis,combined with the definition of "resident population ",analyzed the applicability of the mobile phone signaling data in the study of the measurement method of resident population.The cell-based positioning method is a simple cell-phone positioning method originated from the cell location technology,and the location information is determined based on the ID of the base station in which the cell phone user locates.The implementation principle is:GSM has a "cellular"network structure.If a mobile phone user performs communication service,he/she needs to register the location in the cell of the base station where he/she is located.By extracting the ID number of the registered cell of the base station,the user can be located in the area covered by the signal of the base station.Compared with other precise positioning technologies(such as GPS),this positioning method is more advantageous in terms of the sample size,coverage area and implementation costs and cycles.The coverage area radius of China Unicom base station is about 100?500m in the urban area,and 500?1000m in the suburbs.A handover occurs when a mobile phone user who is on a call moves from a cell of base station to another cell of base station.In order to ensure the quality and continuity of users' communication,the base station platform switches the mobile station from one call channel to another call channel,that is the handover of base station.Secondly,China Unicom mobile phone base station cells are mapped to the streets of Pudong New District by establishing a specific matching rule,and then the mobile phone users which occur in these base station cells at specific time of the night are extracted as the research object.Third,establish a resident population identification model.According to move trace and the stay time at different spots of mobile phone users at night to determine the target users' place of residence.For a street,people who stay there longer than a certain number of days are regarded as permanent residents,and then the number of people living in each street town can be calculated separately.Then,study the going out probability of the population in each street town.By establishing a linear regression relationship between the number of living days and the corresponding population,the population's out-going probability p of each street town is obtained.Clustering the 38 street towns according to p,and analyzing the street towns in each category.Finally,summarize the innovations and shortcomings of the research methods,and put forward the prospects for the follow-up research. |
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