Research On Financial Vulnerability In China

Our country has a large territory,regional economy and financial development are imbalance,because of the natural endowment difference with other factors.From the macro-environment,the basis of economic recovery is not stable,some deep-seated contradictions are still outstanding,as follows: internal impetus driving of the economy growth is insufficient,some industry excess capacity,the potential risk of non-performing assets is increased.These phenomena increased the uncertainty of the financial fragility in different degree.To some extent,the regional financial fragility will not only affect the region's economic development,also in other parts of the financial risk,and even cause the national financial turmoil.Therefore,the study of the financial fragility has important theoretical and practical significance for the healthy development of regional finance and economy.Based on the theory of financial fragility and the research of regional financial vulnerability,on the basis of adopting the method of assets and liabilities structure,from the relevant indexes of four main body angle to establish a comprehensive index of the regional financial vulnerability,that public sector,the financial sector,corporate sector and households departments.According to the alert value,analysis the regional financial fragility from different provinces and district.Apply to the ADF test,Hausman test,fixed effects models and random effects model of the panel,combining the theoretical analysis and empirical research,demonstrates the effect that economic growth,government intervention,real estate price fluctuations and economic scale to the regional financial fragility in 2005-2013.Research shows that: from the time cycle analysis,the financial fragility is rising in the period of 2005-2009,but gradually decline after 2009.From the regional comprehensive index of the financial fragility analysis,there has obvious differences between the region in our country,and the financial fragility degree gradually reduced from the western,central,to east.Through panel data analysis,economy growth and the regional financial fragility has negative relationship significantly,with the economy increase steadily,the regional financial fragility will continue to decline;the stronger the degree of government intervention in the economy,the higher of regional financial fragility.Real estate price fluctuations and regional financial fragility have correlated relationship positively,that is the real estate price fluctuations higher,the regional financial fragility will tend to rise greatly,on the contrary,the smaller the real estate price volatility,the higher the regional financial stability.