The Assessment And Regulation Research Of Our Country's Financial System Fragility

As the foundation of the healthy development of a country's economic is a stable financial system,stabilizing the financial system and effectively preventing financial risk become what every country's regulation authority desperately want.To achieve such a goal,however,is challenged by many problems brought by financial system's fragility.How to scientifically assess financial fragility and explore the effective governance mechanism is really a difficult problem faced by both regulation authorities and researchers of finance theory.This thesis is aim to assess the financial fragility of our country and solve the problem.Building on a huge exploration of relevant articles,this thesis has systematically summarized the concepts,the origin and measuring methods of financial fragility.In this paper,we briefly presented the theory basis of financial fragility origin and regulation.Then,in light of the construction experiences of international financial supervision authorities' assessment indicator framework of financial fragility,we have formulated ideal and practical financial fragility assessment indicator framework.The latter has considered the data availability of the indicators.Using the data between 1996 to 2016,we analysed the financial fragility of each department which we think is relevant with the financial system's fragility.We found that the banking department and exchange rate management are sound by the large,and that non-bank financial institutions,real estate industry,industry company,household and government all have piled up some risk deteriorating the financial system fragility.After that,we formulated an index with Analytic Hierarchy Process to measure the financial system fragility.Using this index,we have analysed the trend of our country's financial system fragility of 2001 to 2015.The result showed that the financial system fragility was quite different from each stage,which was going down from 2001 to 2006,and vibrating from 2006 to 2010,then going up from 2011 to 2015.The financial system fragility Of 2015 was even more than 2007's when the US subprime crisis broke out.By the end of this paper,we designed a financial system fragility governance mechanism drawing on the experiences of the UK's and the United States' reformation of the financial regulation system.In this mechanism,the Financial Stability Committee is supposed to design financial stabilization policies,while the CBRC,the CIRC,the CSRC,the Financial Conduct Regulatory Commission are designed to enforce these policies,the PBOC assesses the efficiency of these governance authorities.And we came up with six suggestions to stablize the financial system.