An Empirical Study On The Sustainability Of Local Government Debt In China

At present,China's economic environment is complicated,local government debt risk has become a major macro risk in China's economic development,and the sustainability of local debt is an important factor to ensure the steady and healthy development of macroeconomic.Since the outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,in response to the impact of the economic crisis on China,China issued 4 trillion is the plan,in the process,the local government debt also showed a blowout growth trend,the local government debt The growth is conducive to the recovery of China's economy and maintain the steady growth of the economy.But it can not be ignored that this has also brought unprecedented risks to China's overall macroeconomics and posed a greater challenge to the stability of China's financial system.Along with this,people are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of local government debt.In order to ensure the long-term and stable development of our national economy,we should pay attention to the local debt risk and take active measures to realize the sustainable development of local government debt.With the rapid development of China's economy into the "three-stage superposition" stage,local government debt can not grow as rapidly as before,although the current local government has not yet appeared a comprehensive debt crisis,but whether the local government's debt risk problems are increasingly The more attention.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the sustainability of local government debt.Based on the data of the two comprehensive audits published by the Audit Commission and the data of the local government work reports over the years,this paper estimates the size of the debt of 28 provinces(cities)based on the fiscal budget constraint and further analyzes the local The development of government debt development characteristics,through the study found that China's overall local debt continues to expand,some provinces have been faced with a more serious debt burden.Secondly,based on the intertemporal budget constraint identity and the corresponding linear feedback function,the non-Pengqi game condition under the linear feedback rule is obtained,and the relevant data of the local government are taken into account.It is concluded that the local government debt in our country is sustainable But there are risks in some provinces.Then the system GMM method is used to estimate and test the basic model.The results further confirm that the local government debt is sustainable.On this basis,the robustness analysis and sensitivity analysis of the liability factors are carried out.Subsequently,sustainability analysis is further based on the perspective of economic growth.The empirical test using the stochastic effect model shows that the local government debt has a critical effect on the economic growth,which further shows that the local government debt in China,although the regional differences are large,but overall is sustainable.Finally,according to the analysis of this article,the author puts forward some policy suggestions to standardize the government financing mechanism,strictly manage the government budget,clarify the reasonable boundary between the government and the market and the steady implementation of the four aspects of the government debt stock replacement,and study the future sustainability of local government debt The future of the government to further study the current implementation of China's government debt stock exchange on the sustainability of China's local government debt is a positive effect or a negative effect,is more harm than good or more harm than good,combined with previous evidence Model,to further introduce the relevant conclusions.