The Experience Of Fund Managers And Their Stock Timing Capability

This paper studies the change of stock picking and timing ability of mutual fund managers from a relatively new perspective-how the manager's experience affects the stock picking and timing ability.Some scholars have found that adverse shocks have helped fund managers improve their ability about managing funds,and some scholars have suggested that manager with specific experience before his start-up will show better ability,and that some of the documents the impact of years of work.Based on these findings,this article reasonably speculates that significant market volatility will forcing fund managers make every effort to find ways to deal with the impact of these market fluctuations,and bring the manager more learning opportunities.manager accumulated more experience from that process,so that performance better in the later market.In this paper,I will combine the latest Fama-French multi-factor pricing model with the TM or HM(which are the two classic stock selection timing model)to get FF5-TM,FF5-HM and other six models for next regression analysis.The concrete two-steps empirical study as follows:(1)Research the stock picking and timing ability of the same fund manager in different period.(2)Research the stock picking and timing ability of different fund managers in the same period.The final conclusions are as follows:The first,suffering a substantial market volatility,mutual fund managers' stock picking weakened compared to their previous ability and timing ability will be strengthen.The reason may be that the fund managers pay more attention to grasp the opportunity of the trend and for what the stock to investment is not very concerned in the market with huge fluctuations.The rise in the overall valuation of the market will drive all stocks up.The second,during the same period,the stock picking ability of manager who had ever dealed with significant market volatility is significantly less than the managers who had not ever experience significant market volatility,and the timing ability was significantly greater than the managers without such experience.The author believes in 2007-2009,a substantial market volatility makes,the fund managers had get a good accumulation of experience,and applied to the subsequent fund management activities.mutual fund Managers payed more attention to the timing of choice,weakened the importance of stock picking as the same time.it can be speculated that the fund manager with a short working experience is still more obsessed with stock picking and getting excess returns through the purchase of good texture of the stock.Once experienced a significant market volatility,the importance of timing choice will be more than the value of choice.