A Study Of The Interactive Relationship Between Offshore And Onshore Exchange Rate

The development of offshore market is an important means to promote the internationalization of the RMB,the opening of the capital account on the offshore market and the improvement of the exchange rate channels are the help of the internationalization of the RMB.At present,it is the best choice to promote internationalization of currency from the offshore market.With the gradual advancement of the RMB internationalization,the RMB offshore market has a rapid development,and the linkage between onshore and offshore market is getting stronger.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the linkage between offshore market and onshore market.The focus point of this paper is to summarize the international experience of offshore market development and the impact on the onshore market,and to analyze the linkage between offshore market and onshore market through the currency substitution theory,arbitrage and market expectations theory,interest rate parity theory,and to use an econometrics approach to analyze the linkage between CNY,CNH and NDF exchange rates.Through the above analysis,the relationship between the offshore market and the onshore market is analyzed,and the meaning of the linkage can be analyzed.We can find whether the offshore market has a guiding effect on the exchange rate price of the onshore market,whether the exchange reform has improved the marketization of exchange rate,which the market is in a leading position in price and whether to open capital projects in the current situation.Finally,we can make policy recommendations through the results of comprehensive analysis of China's offshore market development,development direction of onshore market and offshore market.Through research,we get the following conclusions:First,the offshore market has a guiding role on the shore market exchange rate prices.CNH market has a one-way guide relationship on CNY market.NDF market has a one-way guide relationship on CNY market.With the rise of CNH market,RMB NDF market price's guidance and information center advantage has weakened.Second,the influence of NDF market is weakening,the influence of CNH market is enhanced.Hong Kong occupies the leading position in price.The linkage between CNH exchange rate and CNY exchange rate increases,indicating that the Hong Kong offshore market and the onshore market is more and more closely linked,Hong Kong also promoted the NDF market and the CNY market's exchange.Third,after "811 exchange reform",the degree of exchange rate market has improved.The dynamic correlation coefficient of CNH and CNY exchange rate increased significantly and fluctuated significantly,but the correlation degree was still low,which indicated that the reform made the RMB exchange rate more marketed.Fourth,the development of RMB offshore market is an important support to promote the internationalization of the RMB.Prosperity and mature offshore markets can bring great trade and investment convenience to nonresidents.Fifth,we can't rush to establish a penetrating offshore market and open foreign exchange control when the national macroeconomic level is unstable and currency fluctuates.We should pay attention to the relationship.The uncontrolled linkage may have serious consequences.Do not make the offshore market become the driving force of the economic crisis.