The Research On Housing Price Transmission Mechanism Of Monetary Policy In China

With the continuous improvement of China's real estate market and capital market system,people's asset allocation has changed,from the deposit transition to the stock market and property market.At the same time,the transfer of funds to the real economy intermediary gradually out of the bank,turned to the capital market and the real estate market,monetary policy of asset price transmission channels began to appear.Real estate is not only a pillar industry to promote China's economic growth,but also has a positive impact on the lives of our residents.In recent years,China's economy is under downward pressure,government take measures of the structural reform of supply-side and loose inventory monetary policy.In this context,house prices rise against the trend of the market trend,the phenomenon are associated to implement the government's policy and attitude,the fluctuation of house prices challenges the effectiveness of monetary policy.Based on this research background,this paper uses the combination of theoretical and empirical methods to explain the housing price transmission mechanism of monetary policy from two stages.In theory,in the second chapter and the third chapter,respectively introduce the development process of China's real estate market,and explain the mechanism of housing prices in order to facilitate the interpretation of the results.Then you can sort out the relationship between monetary policy and China's real estate development,the central bank will in fact to reflect fluctuations in prices,house prices will be affected by the influence of monetary policy.The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter respectively carry on the empirical analysis from the macroscopic and microscopic perspective.Firstly,based national monthly data from January 2000 to March 2017 establish the SVAR model,using the RIF function,variance decomposition and Granger causality test,the price transmission mechanism of monetary policy analysis in each stage of the short-term and long-term effect.Results: at present,China's housing prices in the monetary policy transmission plays an intermediary role,the most significant effect of regulation of the money supply,interest rate and credit scale effect with a long delay,and the stimulating effect of house prices on consumption and investment remains to be further improved.On the basis of the national perspective,the research goes deep into the regional perspective,and further analyzes the differences of monetary policy transmission mechanism in different regions.On the prices of clustering analysis,and then the 30 provinces are dividedinto high medium and low prices in three regions,the establishment of three PVAR model,comparative analysis of monetary policy conduction through the house two stages to the real economy in the difference between the three regions.The difference between the first stage conduction performance in the region: high prices in the zone of real estate prices explained the strongest currency supply,reflecting the strong spot;low price zone prices of M2 adjustment is lasting,reflect the process effectively.The transmission mechanism shows the macroeconomic variables in different regions have different prices to reflect local fluctuations in the second stage,the effect of low prices prices area of consumption and investment in the long-term negative impact on prices,but also for the long-term negative.In conclusion,the conduction process is blocked in the second stage,the regional difference is great,the effect is not obvious,and the efficiency of monetary policy transmission needs to be improved.The price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is different from region to region,and the effects of different monetary policies on housing prices are different.The monetary policy transmission mechanism of prices is not perfect.These problems arise mainly from the uneven development of China's capital market and financial market,the existence of social income gap,the existence of a certain bubble in the real estate market.According to the conclusion,to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism of prices,promote the healthy development of the economy,respectively from the narrow regional gap,land system reform,the implementation of monetary policy regionalization,and improve the real estate market and financial markets level,put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.