Monetary Policy Affects The Transmission Mechanism Of Housing Prices In Shandong

The rapid economic development,the real estate market over-boom,high house prices have become a major hidden danger in China's economic operation.In order to return the house price to its reasonable value range,the Chinese government has carried out a number of macro-control,but the effect is not satisfactory.Establishing a scientific mechanism of housing prices,making a good use of interest rates,money supply and other monetary policy tools,has become the current urgent problems to be solved."Monetary policy is whether considering the real estate price",this view has not yet formed a unified conclusion in the academic community but the historical and realistic economic situation has told us that ignoring the fluctuation of real estate prices,will bring disastrous lessons.At present,domestic scholars have studied the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy more based on the national macro level,involving less research in micro-area.Shandong Province as the real estate market is more mature provinces,and has a good reference value with its sound policy system.Therefore,this paper takes the real estate market of Shandong Province as an example to study the transmission mechanism of regional housing price.Firstly,on the basis of the research on the theory of monetary policy and the real estate,this paper chooses the interest rate and the money supply as the representative tool of monetary policy,analyzes its influence mechanism on real estate price,and establishes the real estate price transmission mechanism theory framework based on the interest rate and the money supply.Then,based on the real estate market in Shandong Province,this paper analyzes the four stages of the real estate market in Shandong province:the rapid start stage,the investment expansion stage,the market digestion and consolidation stage and the stable development stage,select the model data of interest rates,money supply and commercial housing prices.The influence of interest rate and money supply on real estate price is analyzed by using ADF test,cointegration test,cointegration equation,ECM model and impulsive effect analysis method based on the four different stages of the real estate market in Shandong Province and model data.Monetary policy can play an important role in the regulation of real estate prices,in other words,interest rate and money supply have an impact on real estate prices,and the impact of money supply and real estate prices is a significant positive correlation,furthermore,the interest rate on the real estate price regulation efficiency is not high.Only when the interest rate is adjusted to a certain extent,it can control the price.This paper takes Shandong real estate market as an example,which analyzes the influence of monetary policy on the real estate price of Shandong Province.The research can provide the basis for the Shandong provincial government to control the real estate market by the monetary policy,which provides reference for the study of the real estate price transmission mechanism of other regional monetary policy.