Research On The Influence Mechanism Of China's Shadow Banking On Economic Growth

The concept of shadow banking was originally proposed by Paul McCulley of U.S.Pacific Investment Management.Like the traditional commercial banks,shadow banking can provide credit support for enterprises and is free from supervision.After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,shadow banking began to attract the attention of scholars and related financial institutions.Foreign shadow banking first appeared in the 1970s,and China's shadow banking has only gradually developed since the 1990s.With the improvement of the economic development level,the demand for social financing has continuously increased,especially the funding needs of SMEs are very strong.Under such circumstances,the scale of China's shadow banking has rapidly expanded.The rapid development of shadow banking has provided new investment channels for companies and individuals.It has also provided SMEs with new financing methods,which have played a certain role in promoting economic growth,but the inherent risks of shadow banking will also affect the smooth operation of the financial system and adversely affect economic growth.Previous studies on the relationship between shadow banking and economic growth have been relatively numerous.Most scholars have come to the conclusion that shadow banking promotes economic growth.Some scholars also studied the inherent risks of shadow banking,they found that shadow banking had a bad effect on the development of the real economy.However,all of them have not yet formed a complete research system.On the basis of previous studies,this paper mainly used the methods of literature review,theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,and analyzed the positive impact mechanism of shadow banking on economic growth,the negative impact mechanism and the final effect of shadow banking on economic growth on the base of financial intermediary theory,financial deepening theory,endogenous growth theory,financial vulnerability theory,financial accelerator theory.Based on the latest macro statistics,the VAR model was established to empirically analyze the influence of shadow banking on economic growth.The study found that the impact of shadow banking on economic growth has both positive and negative effects.On the one hand,the emergence of shadow banking has expanded the financial function of the financial system,designed a wealth of financial institutions and products,expanded the scale of social financing,eased the credit constraints of SMEs,and played a certain role in promoting economic growth.However,shadow banking also has a negative effect on economic growth.The credit funds that should have flowed into the real economy to expand and re-produce were re-emerged into shadow banking.The macro-control policies also failed to achieve the desired results under the influence of shadow banking.At the same time,shadow banking also caused more severe economic fluctuations.The final effect of shadow banking on economic growth is uncertain.Under the condition of interest rate regulation,shadow banking can make social interest rates move to a balanced interest rate,thereby realizing a balanced credit scale and balanced output.With the continuous advancement of interest rate liberalization,social interest rates may reach a level of equilibrium interest rates.However,shadow banks will continue to push up market interest rates,which will restrain demand for credit,resulting in lower real output and hinder the growth of the real economy.