Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On Economic Growth In China

With the continuous development and reform of China's financial market,the scale of shadow banking and its influence in the financial market are increasing day by day,exerting unprecedented influence on the traditional commercial banking business.Since it is difficult to determine the scale and statistical caliber of shadow banking at present,and the content of shadow banking in China is different from that in the United States and other countries,the scale and complexity of shadow banking in China cannot be compared with that in the United States and other developed countries.The biggest difference is that shadow banking in China generally has more or less explicit or implicit guarantee.Therefore,based on the definition of shadow banking proposed by the people's bank of China,this paper adopts the definition of bank for international settlements(BIS),that is,partially regulated or unregulated financial instruments,to replace the credit intermediary activities(liquidity,term and credit risk conversion)carried out by traditional commercial Banks.This paper begins with the background and significance of the topic,and briefly introduces the research methods,structure,possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper.Second,combed the predecessors to shadow Banks at home and abroad and its impact on economic growth,on the basis of literature review,combined with the present actual situation of China's financial markets for China's shadow banking concept and scope of specific definition,and the entrusted loans,trust loans,not discount bank acceptance bills of exchange,bank financial products,not observed credit(P2P)loan scale were analyzed with emphasis on theory.Thirdly,the relationship between the development of shadow banking and economic growth is analyzed as the theoretical basis of this paper.Then,based on the theoretical analysis of the influence of the shadow banking on economic growth,from 2012 to 2017 the 24 quarter as the time node,entrusted loans,trust loans,not discount bank acceptance of draft scale data aggregation as the first part of the shadow banking scale(RSB),financial product size for the second part of the shadow banking scale(LC),see the two as explanatory variables,using 24 quarter GDP measures the economic level,and then establish the VAR model to analyze China's shadow banking scale effect on economic growth for empirical research,It is believed that the development scale of the first part of shadow banking(RSB)has a co-existence of positive effect and negative effect on economic growth,and the fluctuation of RSB has a greater impact on economic growth.For the second part of shadow banking,the relationship between the balance of financial products(LC)and economic growth is that the size of the balance of financial products(LC)will not have an impact on economic growth.On the contrary,with economic growth,the balance of financial products(LC)in China will increase,but the impact is limited.Finally,on the basis of empirical research,in order to combine the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,found the problem,for the rational development of shadow Banks and promote the economic development of statistical caliber of expanding the money supply,strengthen social financing scale effect,innovation,the transmission mechanism of monetary policy,optimizing the structure and development of the shadow banking,perfecting the laws,regulations and regulatory framework and the mechanism of policy recommendations.