| The real estate sector is a pillar industry in the national economy and housing prices have always been a common concern in the society.Since 2003,the real estate market has ushered in the golden period of development.Housing prices and the turnover of commercial residential buildings hit record highs.The prosperity of the housing market has fostered the expectation that housing prices will continue to rise and housing has become a kind of investment.In order to promote the healthy development of the real estate market and curb the excessive rise of housing prices,the government has taken a series of regulatory measures,but these measures do not yield a marked effect.Housing prices still rise too fast,and the problem of imbalance between supply and demand has not been fundamentally resolved.Considering that the traditional regulatory measures have little effect,expectations management has become a focus for regulation.Taking these into consideration,it is very important to study the relationship between the real estate market and the macroeconomy from the perspective of expectations.This paper first constructs a small DSGE model as a benchmark and introduces a news shock to analyze the co-movement between real estate market and macroeconomy when the news shock is realized or not and the mechanism of boom-bust cycles.Besides,this paper extends the benchmark model by using China's quarterly macroeconomic data between 2001 to 2016 to estimate some parameters through Bayes estimation and further explore the responses of the macroeconomic variables to news shocks.In the meantime,based on the variance decomposition,the extended model investigates the importance of the news shocks and the source of economic fluctuations.The results show that the technological news shock in the consumption sector,monetary news shock,cost-push inflation news shock and labor supply news shock can well depict the co-movement between macroeconomic variables and thus driving the boom-bust cycle.Moreover,news shocks are important forces driving the fluctuation of China's business cycle.Among them,anticipated technology shock in the consumption sector,anticipated cost-push inflation shock and anticipated labor supply shock are the most important sources of economic fluctuations in China. |
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