An Empirical Study Of RMB Regionalization From The Perspective Of Currency Weight

Survey the development history of the international monetary system,a hundred years of historical experience tells us that if a region wants to maintain a relatively stable monetary environment,it must choose a relatively stable “anchor currency”.After two financial crises in 1998 and 2008,the RMB has gain attention from various economies around the world.Nowadays,the internationalization of RMB has been endowed with distinctive features of the times.The internationalization of RMB will inevitably impact the current world monetary system.At the same time,due to the competition of interests between different countries,there will be challenges in the process of China's currency internationalization inevitably.At present,the focus of China's currency internationalization is to seek the RMB peripheralization actively and realize its regionalization in East Asia,and then extend it to the entire Asia-Pacific region.The article use Frankel's Currency weight model for reference.The key research is on measuring the weight of the RMB and the other four major currencies(the US dollar,yen,euro,and British pound)in the currency baskets of East Asian countries,and then giving a further analysis of the RMB since 2000 by the change of its weight.Firstly,the article divides the sample into three phases according to two important time points in our exchange rate reform(2005 and 2010).Secondly,use a static estimation to estimate the weight of the RMB and the four major currencies in East Asian at all stages.Then,we use dynamic model of regression,and carry out a detailed investigation of the changes in the weight of the RMB at each point in time.The study has found that in the currency baskets of various economies in East Asia,the weight of the RMB is relatively high and generally on the rise,what's more,it has gradually replaced the yen as another core currency that is after the US dollar in East Asia.From the perspective of time,the change in the structure of the international monetary system is often caused by changes in the international political and economic order and it is a manifestation of hegemonic supersession.The US dollar is very likely to be dominant in Asia in the future.We can only consider how to strengthen the RMB's impact on the surrounding regions and countries under the dollar system.In the process of promoting the internationalization of the RMB,we should take the reality of our country as a starting point,and learn from the international experience,and then we can go out of a road of currency internationalization with Chinese characteristics.This provides a relatively clear reference for the study of the RMB internationalization process.