The Influence Of RMB Internationalization On The Exchange Rate Of Southeast Asian Nations

The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 made the international monetary system with the US dollar at its core severely challenged.At the same time,as China's economic strength has increased and the process of RMB internationalization has accelerated,the role and status of the RMB in the international currency system has become increasingly important,the regional and international influence has been improved.In recent years,more and more studies have concluded that since the“exchange reform”,the influence of the RMB in the Southeast Asian region has gradually increased,and it has become an important reference for the formation of currency exchange rates in the Southeast Asian region,playing a role similar to the“money anchor”.Therefore,studying the extent to which the currency exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries are affected by the RMB can reflect the effectiveness of RMB internationalization in one aspect.In terms of the international influence of the RMB,according to the statistics of the SWIFT,in December 2016,the RMB became the world's sixth largest payment currency with a market share of 1.68%.Since 2009,the RMB settlement of cross-border trade has developed rapidly.In 2016,the RMB settlement amount of cross-border trade reached 5.23 trillion yuan,most of which came from Hong Kong and Southeast Asian countries.As of the end of 2016,the People's Bank of China has signed bilateral exchange agreements with central banks or monetary authorities in 36 countries and regions.The total amount of the agreements exceeded RMB 3.3 trillion.At present,the People's Bank of China has established RMB clearing arrangements in 23 countries and regions,covering Southeast Asia,Europe,the Middle East,the Americas,Oceania,and Africa.The RMB clearing arrangements have been continuously improved.According to incomplete statistics,more than 60 countries and regions now include RMB in their foreign exchange reserves,and the RMB has gradually begun to function as a reserve currency.Under the background of the deepening international influence of the RMB,thisdissertation studies the degree of influence of the RMB internationalization on the currency exchange rates of the Southeast Asian countries.For China,it is not only conducive to a correct understanding of the current status of the RMB in the Southeast Asian region,but also conducive to better Promote the internationalization of the RMB.On the one hand,the internationalization of the RMB has meant that the RMB has become an important valuation and settlement currency in international trade.On the other hand,it also shows that the RMB has become a country's reserve or basket currency and has become its main reference currency.Therefore,from the perspective of the basket of currencies of Southeast Asian countries,the dissertation combs theoretically the feasibility of using basket weights as the evaluation criteria for RMB internationalization,and empirically measures the weight of Southeast Asian countries' currency anchors to test the influence of the RMB on the exchange rate of Southeast Asian countries..The first part of this dissertation introduces the topic selection background,research significance,research methods and contents.The second part mainly summarizes the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars in the related fields.Furthermore,the third part describes the theoretical basis which related to the theory of optimal currency area and currency competition theory.Then,the composition of the currency basket in Southeast Asian countries is discussed.The fourth part analyzes the feasibility of RMB as a monetary anchor in the Southeast Asian region.The fifth part is the empirical analysis.Firstly,it analyzes the trend of currency exchange rates between the RMB and the Southeast Asian countries.Secondly,it further analyzes the correlation between the US dollar and the RMB and the currencies exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries.Finally,it removes the impact of the US dollar on the RMB exchange rate.The analysis of the currency baskets of Southeast Asian countries is conducted to study the impact of the RMB exchange rate on the currency exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries,and then to analyze the effect of RMB internationalization.The results of the study indicate that: Firstly,in the short-term,the RMB can hardly replace the US dollar as the currency anchor for theSoutheast Asian region.Secondly,the influence of the RMB has increased.Finally,the current RMB's affects the currencies of Southeast Asian countries mainly through trade channels.From another perspective,the contribution of financial channels to the current exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited.The last part of this dissertation is to propose corresponding policies on how to increase the influence of RMB in Southeast Asia.