My Country's Foreign Direct Investment Risk Early Warning Mechanism And Prevention Research

In recent years,with the rapid growth of China's outward foreign direct investment,the risk events of outward foreign direct investment have occurred frequently and caused huge losses.However,the risk management level of China's outward foreign direct investment enterprises is relatively low,and the risk early-warning and prevention mechanism of outward foreign direct investment is not sound,and the capabilities of risk early-warning and prevention are limited.Enhancing China's foreign direct investment risk early-warning and prevention capabilities is one of the host issues currently in the theoretical community.Through the analysis of existing researches,we find that there are mainly lack of scientific and effective early-warning methods,and existing risk-early warning analysis methods(linear discriminant analysis,analytic hierarchy and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,neural network analysis,complex network laws,etc.)have many shortcomings.As a new kind of risk early-warning method,Bayesian network method has been applied in the OFDI risk management,but there is no systematic research work.This paper proposes a Bayesian network method to establish the risk early-warning and prevention mechanism of China's foreign direct investment.This article is divided into six chapters.The first chapter,introduction,puts forward the significance of this article based on the research background of China's foreign direct investment risk status and risk early-warning and prevention status.We research the existing literature,and proposes the main research content and method of this paper.It also briefly describes the innovations and deficiencies of this paper.Chapter 2,defines the concept and the mechanism of risk transfer of outward foreign direct investment,defines the concepts of China's foreign direct investment risk and risk early-warning,and analyzes the direct foreign investment risk transmission path in detail.The process laid the foundation for the establishment of the following risk early-warning mechanism.Chapter 3,China's foreign direct investment risk classification and analysis of influence factors,mainly introduces the political risk,economic risk,social risk,management risk,legal risk and technological risks.First,we theoretically analyzed the political factors,economic factors,social &cultural factors and management factors affecting China's direct foreign investment,and then adopted panel regression to empirically test some of the risk factors.Chapter IV,the establishment of an early-warning mechanism for OFDI risk based on Bayesian network,including the selection of risk early-warning indicators,the quantification of risk warning indicators,the setting of risk thresholds,and the mechanism of risk early warning operations,etc.Based on this,a Bayesian network risk early-warning model operating mechanism and design were proposed.Chapter 5,citing Inspur's direct investment in India as an example,we established a Bayesian network risk early-warning model,collected data on six risk factors through questionnaires,and constructed a Bayesian network structure.The investment risk status was analyzed in detail,and the effectiveness of the Bayesian network risk early-warning mechanism was verified.Chapter 6,suggestions,this chapter mainly proposes the main suggestions and measures for China's foreign direct investment risk prevention from the perspectives of risk classification and related subjects of foreign direct investment.From the point of view of research method innovation,this paper analyzes the direct foreign investment risk transmission mechanism,analyzes in detail the main types of risk and the influence factors of foreign direct investment in China,and adopts the panel regression method to influence the foreign direct investment risk in China.The factors were tested empirically.On this basis,the Bayesian network method was used to provide early-warning and prevention of China's foreign direct investment risk,and a Bayesian network based on the selection,quantification and risk threshold setting of risk indicators was constructed.The early-warning mechanism for OFDI risks and the detailed design of the risk-warning model allow the forecasting of the total risk of OFDI projects through the operation of the model,and realizes different degrees of risk early-warning under the monitoring of risk thresholds.Finally,suggestions on China's outward foreign direct investment risk early-warning from two angles: risk classification and relevant subjects.The research of this thesis not only has important theoretical significance for the research on the OFDI risk early-warning,but also has important practical significance for improving the early-warning and prevention of China's OFDI risk.