Revise GDP Based On Optimal Filtering Techniques

There are generally three accounting methods for GDP revision,production method,income method and expenditure method,the latter two are more common.At the present stage,the method for China's statistics bureau to disclose GDP is to report the data in different provinces,then simply add them up and revise them after the initial disclosure.The World Bank's estimate of China's real per capita gross domestic product is well below the level disclosed by China's statistics bureau.And domestic current GDP adjustment method is qualitative method,fixed source of GDP to more accurate,and adopts the method of adjust the data of the following year,the purpose of this thesis is to provide an innovative correction method of GDP.Spending and income method are two of the most common method of GDP accounting,spending method to calculate the GDP,referred to as GDPE,the method of income business accounting of GDP is referred to as GDPI,foreign scholars generally believed that GDPI performance is better than that of GDPE in many ways,but the domestic many GDPE economic research is still taken as variables.The purpose of this study is not tell scholars,have to make a choice between GDPE and GDPI,real GDP may be higher than the two values may also below may also be located in between the two,this thesis adopts the advanced econometric model of the optimal filtering method,to calculate real GDP,based on the GDPE and GDPI this estimator is superior to the single measure out any form of GDP.The core of optimal filtering technology is to build dynamic factor model,predict error and measure error,and then make bayesian correction.Mechanism of this method is that will need to measure the "real GDP" as a potential variable is determined by several parameters,is one of the most important two parameters GDPE and GDPI,then the optimal filtering technology to extract the real GDP.The operation method of this method is:first,a parametric estimation model is used to extract the potential real GDP.The method adopted here is bayesian likelihood estimation.Second,the prediction parameter combination or error combination,where the standard parameter estimation must be used.Third,the GDP correction under the measurement error makes the correlation between the GDP measurement error and the current economic situation become clear.This kind of research has real and realistic significance.