Ownership Property,Tunneling And The Accuracy Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts:Empirical Evidences From Listed Security Companies

With the development of China's capital market in the past three decades,institutional investors have been gradually growing.As of 31 December 2017,the market value of stocks hold by institutional investors was 7,680 billion,accounted for 17.10%of the market value of A share listed companies.Institutional investors are becoming the mainstay of the capital market.Many domestic and foreign literatures focused on the performance of institutional investors in the capital market,while the seller analysts are becoming an important information source of institutional investors'investment decisions,the research on factors influencing analysts' earnings forecasts is relatively scarce.Therefore,study on the factors influencing the accuracy of the analysts' earnings forecast is not only an academic issue with innovative opportunity,but also helpful to public funds,management and trust companies in better selecting excellent brokerages to provide analyst services and the buyer's institutions in better pricing the seller's analyst service.Using analysts forecast data from 2007-2016 issued by all analysts from A-share listed security firms and the method of multiple linear regression analysis,this thesis studied analysts' earnings forecasts from the perspective of corporate governance by examining the impact of ownership property and tunneling on the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts.After controlling the asset size,profitability and capital structure of listed security traders,it is found that both the ownership property and the tunneling of listed security traders have significant impacts on the accuracy of analysts'earnings forecasts:the ownership property of listed security companies is positively related to the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts.That is,the earnings forecasts in the research reports issued by the listed brokerage of State-controlled companies are more accurate;while the tunneling of the large shareholders of the listed security companies is negatively related to the accuracy of the analyst's earnings forecasts,that is,the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts from listed brokers without large shareholders'tunneling is higher.In addition,for whether cash dividend distribution is a means for large shareholders to tunnel the listed companies has been controversial in the academic circle.This paper conducts an empirical test,and the results show that the cash dividend distribution reduces equity agency cost,increases the enterprise value,and improves the accuracy of earnings forecasts.It is worth noting that the past research on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts is seldom concerned on the impact of corporate governance,such as ownership property and tunneling.The innovation of this paper is to verify the impact of the ownership property and tunneling on analysts' earnings forecasts of listed security companies.