Research On The Accuracy Of Securities Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts And Its Impact Factors

In recent years, China’s stock market has made a certain development in the process of continuous exploration. Securities analysts’ earnings forecast are getting more attention by majority of investors. The securities analysts’ earnings forecast data have a great effect on investor’s value judgment in a large extent. This paper using the way of literature research, statistical analysis and empirical research to analyze and interpret status and influencing factors of Chinese analysts’ earnings forecasts, and offer some proposals on improving analysts’ forecasts to help investors be more rational when using analysts’earnings forecast minute, and provide direction for the orderly and healthy development of the securities market.Firstly, this article have reviewed the domestic and foreign literature that related to Securities analysts forecast earnings, and proposed research topics and directions of this article. Secondly, this article have defined conception of the securities analysts and earnings forecast and expound three basic theory of earnings forecast in detail. After doing the theoretical groundwork, based on the surplus forecast data of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange A board share listed company, the article have Described and analyzed the basic situation of Chinese Securities analyst and the month of earnings report. At the same time, we have introduced four factors that may affect the accuracy of analysts predict in detail. Then we raised our hypothesis and model in the part of empirical research. The results of factors affecting the accuracy of the empirical earnings forecast show that, when an analyst has a high level of education and more experiment in stock market, their forecast will be more accurate. Meanwhile, if the analyst has a better quality of information disclosure, their forecast will be more accurate, as well. However, it has no significant correlation between firm Size and earnings forecast accuracy. Finally, According to our empirical results, some specific recommendations were gave to improve effectiveness of analysts’ forecast from the perspective of improving the quality of information disclosure of listed companies, improving the overall level analysts and strengthening financial supervision.