Reevaluation Of Economic Effectiveness On Land Consolidation Project Considering The Risk Of Disaster

As a basic work of project feasibility analysis,the economic benefits evaluation of land consolidation projects not only can predict the economic benefits of land consolidation projects scientifically,but also is an important basis to determining whether the project can be implemented.The impacts of natural disasters on project evaluation results are often ignored in traditional economic evaluation of land consolidation projects.But natural disasters,especially meteorological disasters,with the characteristics of wide spatial scales,large time spans,and high frequencies,have a large impact on the yield of crops,and then affect the economic benefits of land consolidation projects.The paper aims to analyze the impacts of natural disasters on the effectiveness of projects,and provide reference for improving the economic benefits evaluation method of land consolidation projects.Because the impacts of disasters on the yield of crops were neglected in traditional economic evaluation of land consolidation projects,the method of relative meteorological yield probability analysis was used to calculate the risk coefficient for crop yield reduction,in order to quantify the impact risk of disasters on the yield of crops.And the risk coefficient for crop yield reduction were used to correct the crop yields predicted,and then revise the evaluation results of economic effectiveness on land consolidation projects by using the traditional method.Based on the traditional methods,the economic benefits reevaluation process on land consolidation projects is designed which takes the risk of disasters into account.The land consolidation project are implemented in Dengyuantai Town,Wugang City,Hunan Province as a study example.The yield reduction risk coefficient of crops is count by using the method of relative meteorological unit yield probability analysis,so as to finish the economic benefits reevaluation on land consolidation project which considers the risk of disasters.Results are obtained as follows:According to the traditional method,the net income of output per year is 6657114 yuan,the benefit per unit area is 4497 yuan/ha,the investment per unit area is 28763 yuan/ha,and the estimated dynamic investment period is 26 years,less than the economic calculation period of project which is 30 years.After meteorological disasters are considered,the net income of output per year is 6266469 yuan,the benefit per unit area is 4,233 yuan/ha,and the estimated dynamic investment period is 29 years,which is less than' the economic calculation period of project too.The project is economically feasible.The case study shows that the yield reduction of crops due to disasters affects the output benefits of land consolidation projects directly.In addition,the disasters will also accelerate the depreciation of farmland water conservancy facilities,reduce the quanlity of land,and make the actual economic benefits of land consolidation projects lower than the current benefits,so that the economic feasibility of projects is less optimistic.In this paper,the risk due to disasters is introduced to construct a set of the economic benefits reevaluation process on land consolidation projects which takes the risk of disasters into account.,and improve the economic benefits evaluation methods on land consolidation projects theoretically.The method of reevaluation is simple and feasible,which can provide a more effective decision basis on feasibility argument of land consolidation projects.