Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Factors Of The Changing Of Chinese Exchange Reserves

Foreign exchange reserve is the main body of a country’s international reserves,and it is one of the important indicators to measure a nation’s comprehensive strength.China’s export-oriented economic development strategy for a long time,happen every day with neighboring countries as well as the major economies of the funds.By the central bank entrusted by the national unified holding and management of foreign exchange reserves,on the one hand,it need to meet all kinds of foreign capital exchange aggregate demand;On the other hand,through market transactions of the foreign exchange market,it need keeping the RMB exchange rate fluctuations,which ensured that the stability of the value of the RMB for a period of time and created a good external environment for the country’s economic development.Foreign exchange reserves can effectively resist financial risks and ensure the country’s international reputation.Under the background of turbulence of the current international financial market and instability of global economic development,increasing holdings of foreign exchange reserve has a lot of help to improve the ability of the government’s macroeconomic regulation and control.At the same time it can also speed up the development of foreign trade.In addition,the increased of foreign exchange reserves can be benefit to the development of the domestic enterprises,such as reduce the financing cost,reduce the transferring influence on international financial risk.Like other economic variables,a country’s foreign exchange reserves is affected by many factors,and the role of influence factors is often tangled,as a result,a single analysis the influence of factors on the foreign exchange reserves are not enough.Based on this,this paper firstly analyzes the present situation and development trend of Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale,and then analyzes source structure based on the balance of payments,and summarized from two aspects of current account and capital and financial projects.The second,it is analyzed two macroeconomic aspects of economic system in China and the domestic economic development,and selected from the gross domestic product(GDP),external balance,foreign direct investment,tourist foreign exchangeincome,import and export value,interest rate difference between China and the United States,money supply,exchange rate,go abroad to study the number nine indicators as explanatory variables.Finally,the integrated use of principal component analysis and multiple linear regression analysis and co-integration analysis on the changes in China’s foreign exchange reserves make an empirical analysis of the influencing factors,and the result analysis shows that the growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves is affected by many aspects,including foreign direct investment and renminbi exchange rate against the dollar’s influence on the foreign exchange reserves,the largest number of study abroad on foreign exchange reserve of our country has a certain influence.On this basis,put forward the corresponding countermeasures and Suggestions.