Study On Farmers' Scaled Planting Behavior Under Regional Flood And Drought Risks

In the context of climate change,the imbalance in the supply of water continues to intensify,causing instability in agricultural production and increasing losses from agricultural disasters.In order to reveal the interaction mechanism of the "catastrophic-risk perception-decision-behavior" chain,this paper takes the large-scale planting farmers in the plateau mountainous area of Yunnan as the research object,and analyzes the scaled planting behavior of the farmers under the imbalance of water resources supply.Select Yiliang County(Dazhai Village,Houjie Village,Heping Village,Xiaocaoba Village)and Yuanmou County(Dianlian Village,Leinong Village,Dashu Village,Gongcha Village,Huajiang Village,Nuolazha Village)as The study area,guided by the theory of environmental behavior,disaster economics and behavioral economics,studied regional flood and drought risk indices,farmer households' perception of flood and drought risk,and farmer households' scaled planting behaviors through multiple assessment methods.The research results were as follows:(1)According to the method of disaster risk assessment by scholars,a comprehensive evaluation index system for regional flood and drought risk was constructed from both hazard risk and vulnerability,and a flood risk index for each village was calculated using a natural disaster risk assessment model.The risk rating of the flood and drought risk index in the study area was divided into the following:Xiaocaoba Village and Dianlian Village belonged to the low-risk area,and Dashu Village and Houjie Village belonged to the medium-risk area,Dazhai Village,Heping Village,Nuolazha Village,Leinong Village,Gongcha Village,and Huajiang Village are high-risk areas.(2)This paper analyzes the spatial pattern of flood and drought risk in different regions,different terrains,and different planting structures.The results show that: from a county perspective,the flood risk index in Yuanmou County is higher than that in Yiliang County.The level of risk from north to south is getting higher and higher in Yiliang County.The risk index of flood and drought in Yuanmou county is generallyhigher and higher than the risk level outside Leinong village from south to north.From the topographical point of view,the flood and drought risk index in the dam area is the lowest,the flood and drought risk index grade in the Mid-Mountain area is higher,and the flood and drought risk index grade in the mountainous area is the highest.From the point of view of different planting structures,the flood risk index of villages planting traditional food crops is higher than that of villages with characteristic cash crops.The main reason for the difference in the flood and drought risk index in the region is the village's natural environment,economic development,and crop water resistance.(3)Based on environmental behavior and Gold's environmental awareness program,an indicator system for the evaluation of flood and drought risk perception was constructed,and the TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method was used to analyze the perception of flood and drought risk among farmers in the survey area.The reasons for the differences in flood risk indicators between farmers and households were analyzed from two levels of individual farmers and villages,and corresponding countermeasures were proposed.The order of importance of indicators affecting flood and drought risk perception of farmer households is: emotional state> thinking>disaster frequency>disaster severity>knowledge and experience> risk communication>disaster experience> sense of place.(4)The analysis of the current situation of large-scale planting behavior of farmers in the sample area shows that the majority of the farmers' planting scale is about 5 ~ 12 mu,and the cultivation method is mainly single variety.Based on the binary Logistic regression model,the influencing factors of large-scale planting behaviors of farmers were analyzed.The results showed that the arable land resources,labor force quantity,and market price had a greater impact on farmers' choice of large-scale planting.At the same time,based on the game theory analysis method,this paper analyzes the decision of farmers' limited scale planting behaviors as a limited rational person,and obtains the farmers' households facing the same flood and drought risk environment,and the effectiveness of the farmers' large-scale planting behavior and their own expectations of agricultural income.The impact of disaster rates,crop varieties,and resistance areclosely related.Under the influence of these multiple factors,farmers will make the ultimate decision-making behavior.