Research On The Relationship Between RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation And China Stock Market Price

Both the foreign exchange market and the stock market are closely related to the country 's macroeconomic conditions.Exchange rate fluctuations will certainly have a profound impact on a country ' s macroeconomic environment.The stock market is an integral part of the entire asset market and is the microscopic subject of the macro economy.As a barometer of the macro economy,the stock market is greatly affected by the macro economy.Therefore,the overall macroeconomic operation will affect the operation of the micro-listed companies,and thus affect the overall stock market price changes.Although changes in political factors and other factors such as the international situation and warfare also affect exchange rate changes and stock market prices,their impact is short-term or partial,and the fast-changing foreign exchange market brings about almost all the time to the overall listed company's stock price.The impact,especially for some industries that are closely related to the foreign exchange market,is to be alert to the risk of exchange rate changes.Therefore,it is very important to pay close attention to and explore the relationship between the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate and the Chinese stock market for the stability of the financial market.This paper uses a series of empirical methods such as cointegration test,Granger causality test,and vector autoregressive model to analyze the exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar from 2009 to 2017,the Shanghai Composite Index,the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index,and the Shanghai Energy Index.The relationship between changes and Chinese stock market prices was studied.The study found that there is a cointegration relationship between them,and there is a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and the stock price.That is,RMB exchange rate fluctuations will unilaterally positively guide stock price movements.As the exchange rate changes,it will bring about a certain impact on stock prices in the short term,but in the long run,the impact of exchange rate changes on the stock market is weak to almost nothing.Finally,according to the empirical research results,the paper summarizes the full text and proposes targetedcountermeasures and suggestions from multiple perspectives.