The Characteristics And Causes Of Price Fluctuations In The New Normal State

Since 2009,China’s economy has begun to shift gears to slow down,entering the new normal development stage,and then this economic structure adjustment,multi-period superposition period of production capacity,inventory,etc.,China’s two major price indices CPI and PPI have seen many “divergence” growth,price The rapid fluctuations make the residents’ sense of consumption more sensitive and the difficulty of the control policies of the relevant departments.This paper focuses on the problem of price fluctuations.Firstly,it combs the characteristics of price fluctuations and their regulatory policies under different economic development cycles from the perspective of time.It focuses on comparative analysis of changes under the new normal,and has an intuitive understanding of price fluctuations in general.Secondly,it distinguishes itself from the regional correlation analysis of price under the traditional analysis model,and builds a panel data system cluster analysis based on the price index(PPI,RPI,and CPI),and obtains seven types of results concerning regional characteristics of price,integrating regional economy and industry.The two dimensions of the cluster explain the new characteristics of the price in the new normal.After analyzing the new characteristics of price fluctuations in the context of the new normal under the completed time and space perspectives,a random forest algorithm with good confidence in the importance ranking of influential factors in machine learning is used to cause price fluctuations.The main four types of external factors of volatility are ranked by the importance of this method,and this method is also different from the traditional establishment of econometric models(vector autoregression,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,etc.)The analysis model of the influence of price on direction and intensity avoids the difficulty of ascertaining the specific intensity of a variable’s impact on price due to the length of observation period and other issues,and is more instructive for the optimization and adjustment of macroeconomic policies to regulate prices.Finally,by focusing on hotspot economic issues,analyzing the existing deficiencies of the existing price index system,adding the content of asset prices on the basis of the original price index,in order to expand the scope of price measurement,the preparation of comprehensive price index,and on this basis Make new thoughts.Through theoretical analysis and empirical tests,the following conclusions and countermeasures have been obtained based on the analysis of the characteristics and causes of price fluctuations in the context of the new normal state.First,the regional characteristics of price fluctuations have changed significantly.With the coordinated development of the region and the optimization of industrial structure,it is necessary to pay more attention to the characteristics of price fluctuations in the regional economic circle and differences in the residents’ consumption habits.Second,as the correlation between quantitative monetary policy and the real economy weakens,and the ability of central banks to use monetary policy to stabilize price levels is greatly challenged,it is necessary to actively promote the transition of monetary policy and promote the regulation of price-based monetary policies based on interest rates.Framework system construction,focusing on optimizing the multi-channel conduction of interest rates.The third is that the evaluation system for existing price lags behind the change in the new normal economy,expands the scope of price index measurement,covers more substantive economic content,integrates into different income classes and regional economies with different development models,and refines and enriches The measurement dimension of the price index,and the use of big data technology in the preparation of the price index system.