Price Evaluation And Index Research On Second-hand Housing In Shanghai

With the rapid and comprehensive development of the national economy,the government not only pursue the efficiency,but also put more attention on the innovation of the market mechanism.In recent years,china real estate market experiences a fast development,it results an ultrahigh public attention.The related economic activities and policies also cause a wild public discussion.In the 19 th National Congress of CPC,President Xi Jinping points out that “the properties should used for people's living,not for speculation.” These years,the price of estates increased continuously,abnormally and unreasonably.This situation will increase the public living cost and bring great risks to the society steady and national economy.What's more,information asymmetric and unreasonable assessment of housing price are the main factors that cause the confusion of the second-hand housing market and unfair trading.According to the survey,the second-hand housing market in China has become more and more active.The growth rate of the second-hand houses has already exceeded that of the new houses in the First-tier cities.Shanghai,an internationally-known port city,is the representative of the economic and financial center in China.Because of the influence of national policy and globalization,Shanghai has experienced a huge change and become more international in terms of political,economy,culture and public ideology.With the continuous development of the city,multiple economic indicators of Shanghai are always at the top of China even in all over the world.Especially the housing price is always on the cusp of people's discussion.Therefore,no matter for the local people or immigrant people,it is necessary to establish an effective price evaluation and prediction for estate price index in Shanghai.The second-hand housing price has experienced a long process of development.At the beginning,the traditional price evaluation method was built including cost method,market method and income method.Then,people began to build the regression model based on characteristic price theory,epecially using some machine learningmethods,such as support vector machine,neural network and random forest.In this paper,16 districts in Shanghai are selected to obtain 28202 pieces of data about Shanghai second-hand houses published on Lianjia net.Through using hedonic price theory,choose the linear regression method and random forest method to establish price evaluation model of second-hand housing in Shanghai.And after comparing the fitting effect of two models,random forest is better than the multiple linear regression model.Then according to the data published by the Shanghai Second-hand Housing Index Office for 2004-2017,author uses R/S method to analysis the price index of second-hand houses in Shanghai from the perspective of time series.The results show that the price index of Shanghai second-hand houses in Shanghai has long-term memory.The author also calculates the cycle period of the price index.These works can provide some reliable support for both of consumer,household and government policy.