Study On The Influence Of The RMB Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Changes On China's Inbound Tourism Income

With the rapid development of the global economy and the expansion of the scope of international trade liberalization,the deepening exchanges between various countries has stimulated the tourism economic process.As an industry with strong growth potential,inbound tourism can bring foreign exchange earnings,balance the balance of payments,and create economic growth through job creation.Now that China's economy has integrated into the wave of globalization,inbound tourism is inevitably confronted with fierce international competition.The exchange rate is an index of price conversion between the two countries and has been indirectly affecting foreign exchange income as a price transmission indicator.Therefore,it is very meaningful to study how exchange rate changes affect the income of inbound tourism,and in today's international economy,the exchange rate has begun to face constant pressure for appreciation,so ‘under the current exchange rate system,how will the RMB exchange rate affect the income of China's inbound tourism?' and ‘what measures should be taken in the inbound tourism market in China when faced with constant changes in exchange rates? How can we deal with the ability to maintain the balance of international payments?'Based on the previous researches,this paper selects the annual panel data from 1994 to 2015 for analysis.First of all,in the theoretical part,the article analyzes how exchange rate changes affect inbound tourism revenue by combing consumption,incomplete exchange rate transmission,and tourism demand theory,and constructs specific conduction paths for exchange rate changes that influence inbound tourism revenues,and points out the exchange rate of RMB,China Tourism The price index and the source country's income level are the main variables affecting China's inbound tourism,and it has laid a theoretical foundation for the establishment of models and mathematical analysis.Secondly,in the descriptive analysis section,the article mainly explores how RMB nominal effective exchange rate affects China's inbound tourism income by combining the changes in the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and the size and composition of inbound tourism income.Third,in the empirical analysis section,the article first performs a unit root test on a single time series variable.The test result is that the time series data itself is not stable,the first-order difference is stable,and then there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the test variables.The cointegration test was conducted and the test results showed that there was a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between variables,because this paper explores how the RMB nominal effective exchange rate affects the number of inbound tourism in China.Therefore,the Granger causality test was used to examine these two variables.The results show that the RMB nominal effective exchange rate is the Granger cause of the number of inbound tourists in China.Then the specific model types of the panel data are determined.The Hausman test is performed on the variables.The results show that the panel data is suitable for the random effects model,and finally the variables are estimated.The conclusion is that the number of inbound tourism is negatively correlated with the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and the price of China's tourism products,and is positively related to the relative income level of tourists from source countries.In this regard,the article concludes with proposals to promote the development of China's inbound tourism by suppressing the excessive appreciation of RMB,continuing the internationalization of RMB,and improving the international competitiveness of the inbound tourism industry.