| In an open economy,the adjustment of a country's monetary policy will affect other countries through various channels while affecting its own economy.As a power,the change of monetary policy in the United States will have a significant spillover effect on other countries' economies.In October 2014,the Federal Reserve announced the end of the quantitative easing monetary policy.Then,it raised interest rates in December 2015 and December 2016,and increased interest rates three times in 2017.The launch of the new round of interest rate raising has caused a sharp concussion in the global financial market and has become the focus of research at home and abroad.The study of the spillover effect of this round of interest rate on China's asset price will help to assess the impact of the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy changes on China's financial market,and provide an important reference for the formulation and adjustment of China's monetary policy.The article extends the Mundell Fleming model to analyze the spillover effect and transmission mechanism of the Fed rate hike on China's asset prices.The paper examined the time variability of the three rate increase of the Fed on the spillover effect of China's asset price,and explained the structural changes of the spillover effect from the three channels of exchange rate,interest rate and short-term capital flow.The result shows that the three increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve has a short-term negative impact on China's stock prices and housing prices,and the impact shows a certain degree of variability.Based on the empirical results and analysis,we propose to further improve the management level of the RMB exchange rate,strengthen the adjustment of the price based monetary policy tools,promote the transformation of the monetary policy regulatory framework,closely monitor the flow of cross-border capital,and gradually improve the relevant early warning mechanism. |
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