Research On The Early Warning System Of China's Strategic Emerging Industries' Trade Friction

The global economic integration and the development of world trade have significantly increased the level of China's opening to the outside world,and have also brought a huge impact on China's industrial development.Frequent trade frictions have fully confirmed this reality.These trade frictions against China have caused heavy losses to China's exports,especially as a strategic emerging industry that supports China's economic structural transformation.At the same time,although research results on trade frictions,strategic emerging industries,and early-warning mechanisms at home and abroad are fruitful,there are few studies that combine emerging industries,trade frictions,and early-warnings.Therefore,research on the issue of trade friction in China's strategic emerging industries can enrich related research theories and promote the healthy and upward development of China's strategic emerging industries.On the basis of combing relevant concepts and trade friction warning theory,warning signal method with artificial neural network had been used in this thesis to put forward the ideas and main methods of China's strategic emerging industries trade friction early warning.Subsequently,through the reading of a large number of domestic and foreign related documents and the development status of strategic emerging industries,we constructed China's strategic emerging industries trade friction warning index from the four aspects of macroeconomics,international competitiveness,bilateral trade,and international market environment.system.Then,according to the early warning process of “determining the alert index-selecting the warning indicators-artificial neural network forecast warning indicators-determining the weights of each indicator-dividing the police-determining the alertness and pre-alarming situation”,China's strategic emerging industries will be established.Trade friction warning system.Taking the export of China-to-US PV industry as an example,we will conduct an empirical study on the established China's strategic emerging industries trade friction early warning system and carry out early-warning results.The results of the early warning effect test show that the effectiveness of the early warning system established in this thesis is good.Through this system,the development trend of the police situation and the forecast value of the future police situation can be obtained directly.It is of great reference significance to propose countermeasures and suggestions for affection and to better realize the function of early warning,and to further improve the trade friction early warning system.