| Cross-border capital flow refers to capital flowing from one country or region to another.Yunnan,as a border province,is increasingly affected by cross-border capital flows.In order to speed up the internationalization of economic and financial development,Yunnan should actively carry out diversified exchanges and cooperation with neighboring countries overseas.Let the assets flow out to gain greater value,and take Kunming as the central city of foreign exchange,form a new model of asset flow.This mode of communication will speed up the scale and frequency of capital flows in Yunnan,and the risks will not be underestimated.Based on this background,this paper analyzes the international capital flow market data of Yunnan Province from 1997 to 2016.Deeply analyzing the impact of cross-border capital flows on the macro economy and financial markets in Yunnan and the various risks that may be caused,based on the analysis and calculation of capital and financial items in the balance of payments.To measure the cross-border capital flow in Yunnan Province.Using ARMAR Model and GMQ1 / 1)Grey Prediction Model to study five indicators of Cross-border Capital flows in Yunnan Province in2017 and 2018,namely,International Tourism Foreign Exchange earnings,current account difference,domestic destination and net goods from Source sites At the same time,combining the formula,the paper analyzes the cross-border capital flow of two years,and excludes the possibility that 2017 and 2018 are the abrupt years.However,the empirical results show that there are risks in the sudden change years of cross-border capital flows in Yunnan.Therefore,based on the empirical conclusions,this paper further puts forward specific policy recommendations to effectively prevent the risk of cross-border capital flows in Yunnan.In order to help establish and perfect the management system which can adapt to the new situation and requirements of cross-border capital flow in Yunnan and even the whole country. |
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