Research On Operational Risk Of Commercial Banks Based On Bayesian Networks

Commercial banks have a certain high risk in nature,the operational risk under the newly revised Basel Accord has been formally identified as one of the three major risks of commercial banks.The losses caused by the operational risks should not be underestimated.The huge losses caused by operational risks have continuously strengthened the importance attached to it by the financial community.In such a realistic situation,it is of practical and urgent significance to be able to realize the identification and accuracy of operational risk.However,the current understanding of operational risk in the banking industry is insufficient,and the study of operational risk is still in its infancy,and most of the studies carried out are qualitative.At the same time,insufficient data will affect the allocation of capital and increase the difficulty of quantification.To a certain extent,the lack of understanding of operational risk has weakened the ability of banks to prevent and control risks.Under the background of the research on the operational risk of commercial banks at home and abroad,from the definition of operational risk under the New Basel Accord,this paper gives the main research methods of measuring operational risk at home and abroad.On this basis,the paper gives the measurement method of Bayesian network,introduces the concept,principle and main reasoning mode of Bayesian network.The reasoning function of Bayesian network is discussed in detail from the point of view of bank case.The loss data collected by commercial banks are processed by using SPSS software.According to the results of descriptive statistical analysis and non-parametric test,Bayesian method is used to estimate the loss frequency and intensity.Based on the operational risk loss data collected and collated by commercial banks,a Bayesian network model is constructed by means of HIGUN LITES software.This paper makes an empirical study on the operational risk of commercial banks in China,and analyzes the current situation of operational risk loss of commercial banks in China through the empirical results.This paper summarizes the frequent occurrence of operational risks in commercial banks.Based on the established Bayesian network model,the empirical analysis and hypothesis analysis are carried out.The results show that the main problems causing the operational risks of commercial banks in China are internal fraud.Based on its unique theory of causality inference,Bayesian network can synthesize qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation,and can be used to measure operational risk in the absence of data.A better solution to the problem of insufficient data for loss events.Finally,some suggestions on strengthening risk management,staff management,system guarantee,checking and auditing,technological innovation and establishing internal loss database are given.