Risk Analysis For Domino Effect In Tank Area Based On Bayesian Network

Petroleum and chemical industry is one of the pillar industries of our country, it plays an important role to the national economy. With the development of China petroleum and chemical industry, chemical industrial park and large-scare storage area appear constantly. Due to the high risk of chemical industry, it is likely to course severe consequences if the major accidents would happen. The definition of domino effect is an accidental phenomenon affecting one or more installations in an establishment which can course an accidental phenomenon in an adjacent establishment, leading to a general increase in consequences. Once domino accident occurred in chemical industrial park or storage area, often can cause disastrous consequences. So it’s very important to assess the risk of domino effect in chemical industrial park and storage tank. This article main research content is as follows.1, Statistic analysis of hazardous chemicals accidents occurring in China during 2011-2014. The number of chemicals accidents occurring in China during 2011-2014 is 821. This led to the deaths of 993 people and injured 2960 people. The reasons, characteristics and laws of those accidents were statistically analyzed on aspects including occurring time, occurring location, physical appearance, hazardous chemicals categories and occurring stage are etc. In addition, this paper analysis some of those accidents where a "domino effect" take place. The result showed that the domino accident consequence is more serious and those accidents exist in stages including production, transportation and storage.2, Quantitative analysis of domino scenarios based on Bayesian network. Using Bayesian network analysis domino effect takes advantage of considering multi-level domino effect, synergistic effect and multi-scenarios which can make the result of study of domino effect more accurate. The probabilities of events are updated in the light of new information, and the most probable path of the domino effect is determined on the basis of the new data gathered. This paper used Bayesian network to identify the domino scenarios and calculate the probability of domino effect through an example. In addition, this paper analysis the influence of the domino effect probability by changing the threshold value.3, Individual risk assessment of domino effect based on Bayesian network. Due to the advantages of Bayesian network, the risk assessment using the Bayesian networks should make the result of risk assessment more realistic. A new method is proposed in this paper to assess individual risk by using Bayesian network. Results of example shows that this method is more realistic and the Individual risk contour covering a wider range. In addition, this paper analysis the difference of risk assessment results when the threshold value changed. The result shows that threshold value plays an important role in risk assessment of domino effect.