Model And Empirical Research On The Economic Cycle Fluctuation Of High-tech Parks

The stability of economic operation is the key to ensure the quality,speed and economic reform of economic growth.The High-tech Park has been the mainstay of China's economic development,which as the key force of China's innovative economic development.Under the background of the new normal economy,China faced not only the downward pressure but structural transformation.Against this backdrop,the High-tech Park will continuously enhances its capacity of independent innovation,fosters new economic growth momentum and drives regional economic development.In the face of China's economic development's uncertainly and instability,more should High-tech Park and technology be as the breakthrough point.Therefore the paper researches on the characteristics and genetic analysis of typical economic cycle,so as to provide scientific basis for smooth Macro economic cycle fluctuation,providing scientific guidance and theoretical reference for policy making.For the realization of the characteristics of High-tech Park economic cycle fluctuation of complete description and accurate measurement,also in order to fill the gap of the academic related contents of research,this paper takes the Zhongguancun High-tech Park as the research object,using its data from February 2005 to September 2016 to analyze its economic fluctuation trend and related issues.First of all,the paper according to the Zhongguancun Index and macro economic cycle fluctuation metrics index as selection criterion,finally determines index which is used to measure the quality,speed,scale and efficiency of High-tech Park economic development.Secondly,based on the EMD algorithm,the paper builds an economic cycle model to analyze the economic cycle fluctuation and trend features,which realizes the implementation of the economic cycle fluctuation and measurement of the accurate decomposition.As a consequence,the paper solved the High-tech Park economic cycle model building and measurement accuracy stability of the problem.Next,we combined the EMD algorithm with Multivariate Linear Regression model to build an economic cycle fluctuation influence factor analysis mode,which we're used to analyze the technical field and policy's factors.Finally,by using impact factors in comparison with the economic cycle characteristics to determine economic synergy.What's more,we try to analyze the antecedents factors,synchronization factors,as well as lagged factors of economic development.Then put forward relevant policy suggestions on the basis of these conclusions.