Reanalyze About The Determination Of Chinese Economic Cycle

At present, the global economic recovery situation is not optimistic,meanwhile the economic is very uncertain. So to solve these problems, we should make right judgments about the current state, and on this basis, help the government to make countercyclical macroeconomic policies. So how to measure the economic cycle and reflect the macroeconomic state, have important theoretical and practical significance.The summary of the shortcomings of the research on the economic cycle, First is the lack of comparative and rationality study that is to say, most scholars choose some kind of filtering method to deal with some data directly; At the same time the shortage is rarely considered the changes such as the international situation or the policy,which can cause the problem that the change of parameter in linear trend equation is not stable; The final is few scholars keep an eye on the nonlinear of the phase adjustment process of Chinese economic cycle.The paper starts from the above three questions. First do a simple summary of classification on the theoretical development of the economic cycle, and review the economic cycle decomposition method, the structure mutation of unit root test, the nonlinear methods, on the basis of reviewed the research method of the economic cycle model the paper starts to study of the Chinese economic cycle, including the use of the HP filter and BP filter and the BSM model meanwhile consider the structure mutation of some points,the comparative study conclude the BSM model who contains structure mutation is suitable for the quarterly GDP trend-cycle decomposition, At the same time the study obtained Chinese economy is in the biggest economic cycle fluctuation margin since the end of 2007’s. At the last part using the STAR model make a nonlinear description, it is concluded that the Chinese economic cycle has nonlinear characteristics, and structure mutation of BSM model has better prediction precision.The innovation of the paper is to analyze various trend cycle decomposition methods, so as to predict our country’s economic cycle; Consider joining structure mutation in the process of filtering and trend decomposition that can be solved equation parameters instability problem, more in line with the actual situation of economic operation; use nonlinear model to study the nonlinear characteristics of economic cycle, in order to accurate explain the macro economic cycle phase transformation characteristics.