Research On The Financialization Of International Commodity Price And Regulation

Since.2002,the commodity futures market has been highly sought after by institutional investors such as hedge funds.The structural changes in the commodity market have led to drastic fluctuations in commodity prices,and have gradully shown a trend of financialization of commodity prices.The emergence of the trend of financialization makes tommodity prices gradually deviate from the fundamentals determined by supply and demand.The commodity prices affected by financial speculation will inevitably affect the stability and development of a country and even the global real economy.In the first chapter of this paper,firstly introduce the research background of the article,and elaborate the theoretical and practical significance of the study,based on relevant research literature at home and abroad,the research methods and research content of this paper are described,and finally the innovation and deficiencies of the study are described.In the second chapter,from the perspective of commodity and financial attributes of commodities,this paper makes theoretical analysis of three factors in determining commodity prices:supply and demand fundamentals,monetary factors and financial speculation.In the third chapter,based on the descriptive statistical analysis of commodity price decisions,the paper illustrates the specific performance of commodity price fluctuations driven by monetary and financial speculation factors through charts,and further analyzes the specific impact of commodity prices on the trend of financialization.Chapter 4 is the empirical analysis.Five explanatory variables,namely,global GDP representing real economic demand,global liquidity,global short-term interest rate and trade-weighted generalized dollar index representing monetary factors,are constructed to explain the net position of commodity futures market representing financial speculation factors.Vector autoregressive model is used and unit is adopted.By using the methods of root test,cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response and piecewise variance decomposition,this paper analyzes the determinants of international commodity price,and makes a comprehensive and systematic empirical analysis.The results show that speculative factors in commodity futures market have gradually become an important factor driving commodity price decisions;the impact of real economic demand from the fundamentals and monetary factors on commodity price decisions has long-term and stable characteristics.From 2003 to the onset of the financial crisis,the rapid rise in international commodity prices was mainly driven by financial speculation;after the outbreak of the financial crisis,the rise in commodity prices was more due to the worldwide low interest rate policy and the gradual recovery of the real economy in a loose monetary environment.In short,the fundamental factors of the real economy remain an important driving force in determining commodity prices,but the impact of monetary and financial speculation on commodity price decisions is growing and cannot be ignored.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion of regulation policy.It summarizes the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis results mentioned above.To prevent the huge loss caused by the uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation caused by the further financialization of commodity price decisions,the regulatory authorities should formulate effective regulation measures,such as continuous completion.The information disclosure system of good commodity market and the establishment of speculative early warning mechanism.