The Impact Of Intergenerational Support On China's Housing Demand

After Market-oriented reform of housing,the average selling price and sales area of housing in China have been increasing year by year although they often fluctuate.As one of the pillar industries of China's national economy,the development of the real estate market not only affects the prospects of many other industries,but also affects people's basic housing problems.In recent years,the prices of housing go on rising fast,as a result the real estate market attract more and more attention.In fact,there are undoubtedly various factors influencing its long-term development,one of which is intergenerational support.Due to the influence of traditional culture in our country,parents have strong intergenerational support tendencies towards their children.Especially in the case of rising housing prices and the need for large amounts of funds for young people to buy houses,parents generally support their children to a certain extent.Since the implementation of the family planning policy in the late 1970s,our family has gradually formed a"one couple and one child" structure,further strengthening the intergenerational support role in the process of buying houses.At the same time,the current generation of Chinese seniors has experienced China's welfare housing phase.When they were young,they did not invest a lot of money in housing purchases.In addition,China's long-term savings habits have enabled older generations to have the ability to support the young people to buy houses,which increase the housing demand.With the further development of "small child" and "population aging",the accumulated savings during the welfare housing period will be gradually released,and the intergenerational support will change accordingly.It is necessary to systematically study the impact of intergenerational support on housing demand.As for how the demographic structure affects the development of the real estate industry,many scholars at home and abroad have conducted a lot of research on the real estate market in different countries.The results of research on foreign real estate market indicate that the aging of the population will reduce housing demand while the result of China is opposite,the reason of which is that the elderly support the next generation to buy houses.Faced with the differences in research conclusions based on the situation of each country,according to China's actual national conditions,it introduces the development history of China's special real estate market and the demographic changes under different birth policies.At the same time,it focuses on the analysis and prediction of the demographic changes after the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy.In the theoretical analysis stage,the overlapping model is linked with China's actual national conditions,and the financing support for house purchase in the old age for the young is included in the overlapping model on the basis of reference to domestic and foreign studies.Finally,the inter-provincial panel data of population dependency ratio and commercial housing sales since China's housing commercialization reform were used to test the correlation between intergenerational support and housing demand.This paper not only analyzes the influence of intergenerational support on housing demand from the national level,but also makes comparative analysis of four economic regions in particular due to China's vast region and imbalance of economic and social development among regions.According to the regression results,the impact of various variables on housing demand varies greatly among different regions in China,based on which it analyzes the impact of intergenerational support on housing demand.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper concludes that there is a negative correlation between the child-rearing ratio and housing demand in the current special situation of China,that is,the child-rearing ratio increases and the housing demand decreases.In the short term,the increase of elderly dependency ratio will continue to promote the housing demand increase,that is,the increase of elderly dependency ratio will lead to the rise of housing demand.However,in the long run,as the aging degree gradually deepens,the driving effect of the ratio of elderly dependency to housing demand will gradually weaken and will start to exert downward pressure on housing demand.At the same time,the implementation of the"universal two-child" policy is effective,and to a certain extent,alleviate the impact of a decrease in the number of children born,raised the birth rate,delay the population aging,improved population age structure,but still can't change the trend of the natural population growth rate declining and the aging degree gradually deepening.Therefore,under the policy of "universal two-child",the influence of population age structure on housing demand will maintain the status quo.The elderly dependency ratio will gradually increase the housing demand,but the driving effect will gradually decrease because the intergenerational support is gradually weakened,and finally the aging will gradually reduce the housing demand.