Research From The Population Dependency Ratio To The Consumption Dependency Ratio

Population dependency ratio is an important index reflecting the influence of population age structure on social and economic development.It has been widely used since it was proposed.But,with the indepth study of scholars,it's found there're many defects in this index.There're three aspects of recognition:First,the size of the children,the labor force and the elderly population isn't estimated,so the excessive emphasis on social support burden;Second,ignoring the impact of industrial structure on population dependency ratio,The three industry per capita output is different,so the different industries of the labor force is different too;Third,people's consumption ability is different,It isn't reasonable to measure the social burden of population by ratio of population at all ages.For these defects,domestic and foreign scholars have proposed the corresponding improvement program.One is to put forward the "standard consumer population",the consumption of children and the elderly are converted into a labor consumption;the other is to put forward "effective labor",by comparing the output of different industries,to reestimate the working population.The author believes that the burden of raising should be more accurate performance as a ratio.The ratio of resources consumed by non productive groups to the consumption of productive personnel should more reflects the burden of raising.(this part of the resources can be regarded as the labor force in order to produce the living resources).It is not simply to measure the proportion of children and the elderly to the working age population.Because the labor consumption expenditure can actually be regarded as a kind of investment.With this input,there is the production of the labor force that is output;The consumer groups,such as students,infants,young children and the elderly are purely consumer groups,their consumer spending does not produce output.So the groups not engaged in the production,whose consumption is a society or region really need to burden.Population dependency ratio was intended to measure the burden of social support.In fact,due to the different age groups of different levels of consumption and the three industrial units of labor output differences lead to the traditional population dependency ratio not so accurate to reflect the burden of social support.The author believes that from the perspective of the consumption of resources to re estimate the burden of social support will be more reasonable.There are two key steps to calculate consumption dependency ratio.The first step is to estimate the effective labor force of the three industry.The average labor force in the first industry is 1 effective labor force.The second and the third industry's labor force in accordance with ratio of per capita labor output to the first industry converted into effective labor.The second step,the calculation of the consumption conversion factor of each age group.The per capita consumption expenditure of the labor force is regarded as the standard consumption expenditure of 1 units,The ratio of per capita consumption expenditure to the labor force in the student group and the non-labor force group is regarded as the respective consumption conversion factor(This ratio is the per capita consumption expenditure of the student group or non-labor group).In the empirical use the sample survey of household data of Xinjian county and Nanchang county in Jiangxi province to calculate the urban consumption ratio and rural consumption ratio.Results showed that both urban and rural areas,all the consumption ratio is lower than the traditional population bring-up ratio,total dependency ratio is more than 20 percentage points difference.That is to say,in the actual urban or rural residents did not bear the heavy burden of raising.Town of various consumption ratio were greater than the countryside,especially in the burden of labor(more than the main body for the 65-year-old man).Therefore,urban residents face greater than rural residents endowment pressure.This article also uses the jiangxi public education expenditure in the fiscal spending in 2014,combined with the government's nine-year compulsory education policy,roughly estimate the government on the education of physical social transfer how much burden relief for the residents.Results show that the government of residents' physical social transfers(education spending part)is a resident of lightened the burden and raising of rural residents in the education of the government in the transfer of real social gain greater social welfare.Finally,the paper summarized according to the results of the full text analysis,and put forward relevant suggestions and measures to improve the residents consumption ratio accuracy and reduce the burden of raising.In improving the accuracy of the dependency ratio,mainly from the improvement of the accuracy of the residents of the group,the validity of the rationality of the estimated labor force and the accuracy of the consumer to determine the accuracy of these three aspects.there are three measures to reduce the burden of the residents.Including industrial upgrading,to promote the traditional home care model and the government to provide adequate social security in accordance with the different support pressures borne by urban and rural residents.