Influencing Factors And Prediction Analysis Of Liaoning Residents’ Consumer Price Index

CPI is a relative number that reflects the changing trend and degree of consumer goods and service prices purchased by urban and rural households in a certain period of time.Price index,as an important macroeconomic index to measure the price level changes,has attracted the attention of many economic entities including the government,enterprises and the public.Price index directly reflects the important economic information of each link in the process of macroeconomic operation,including production,circulation,consumption,import and export,investment and other links.Price index essentially reflects the comparative relationship between supply and demand.In the case of oversupply and oversupply,price index will have different reactions and performance.The analysis and forecast of the consumer price index is very important for the government to make policies so that the economy can develop smoothly.Previous scholars have studied CPI in China from the aspects of CPI composition,price index of agricultural products,money supply,exchange rate,consumption and investment.The results show that among the eight categories of CPI,food and residential price indexes have the most significant impact on CPI.The impact is far greater than the other six categories of price indices;the rise in prices will be affected by fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products;the supply of money has a sustained role in promoting inflation;the impact of domestic exchange rate on CPI is relatively weak;the impact of social fixed assets investment on CPI is more significant,but the impact of household consumption rate.The impact is weak.This paper excludes the common influencing factors of all provinces in China:the composition of CPI,the price of agricultural products,the supply of money,exchange rate,consumption and investment:money supply,exchange rate and the less influencing factors on CPI:household consumption,from the composition of CPI,the price of agricultural products,industrial output and fixed capital.The analysis of production and investment shows that the output value of grain crops and fruits and vegetables in Liaoning Province is high,while the output value of fruits and vegetables is relatively low;heavy industry is the main industry,light industry is relatively small;fixed assets investment is different from the continued rise of other provinces,after 2014 there was a sharp decline.In view of these phenomena,this paper analyzes the degree of opening to the outside world,industrial management structure and management policies.Corresponding with the composition of CPI,the price of agricultural products and the output of industry,a VAR model is set up to empirically analyze the influence of commodity retail price index,the price index of agricultural means of production and the factory price index of industrial products on the consumer price index.The 185 sets of data from January 2003 to May 2018 are used to analyze the CPI of Liaoning Province in the next 12 months.I has made predictions so as to put forward corresponding policy recommendations for stabilizing prices.Firstly,this paper analyzes the factors that affect the consumer price index,and then analyzes the commodity retail trade,agriculture,industry and fixed assets investment in Liaoning Province to find out the characteristics of Liaoning Province.Taking the data of four indexes of Liaoning Province,namely,consumer price index(CPI),commodity retail price index(RPI),price index of means of agricultural production(MPI)and factory price index of industrial products(PPI),as the original data,after data processing,the consumer price index,commodity retail price index and price of means of agricultural production were analyzed.The relationship between the index and the factory price index of industrial products is empirically analyzed.The VAR model system is used to analyze and forecast the future consumption price level of Liaoning Province.The research contents of this paper are as follows.The first part is Chapter 1-2,mainly the introduction and a brief introduction to the content and compilation of the consumer price index,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following analysis and research.The second part is Chapter 3-4,which is the most important part of the empirical analysis.Firstly,the paper compares Liaoning Province with other typical provinces in terms of commodity retailing,agriculture and industry,and analyzes the reasons why Liaoning Province is different from other provinces in terms of commodity dependence,industrial management structure and political,economic and cultural system.Then this paper selects 185 groups of CPI monthly data from January 2003 to May 2018 in Liaoning Province,and uses VAR model system to analyze the possible relationships amprice index(RPI),agricultural means of production price index(MPI)and factory ong consumer price index,commodity retail price index(PPI)in Liaoning Province.Chapter 5 of the third part,this chapter according to the previous chapters of Liaoning Province consumer price index research and analysis of the conclusions drawn from the corresponding policy recommendations.The main innovation of this paper is to find out some factors that can best reflect the characteristics of Liaoning Province among the factors affecting China’s CPI,and use the latest data of these factors to predict the CPI of Liaoning Province,so as to make the prediction results more accurate.The main deficiency of this paper is that the fluctuation of fixed assets investment in Liaoning Province is obviously different from that in other provinces,because the quarterly data is not used in the forecast.If the fixed assets investment is used,the lag of its impact on CPI should be considered.Another deficiency is the subjective perception of residents and consumer prices.There are some differences between the exponential statistics,so the final forecast results may be deviated from the residents’feelings.